Simulation of Possible Future Climate Changes in the 21st Century in the INM-CM5 Climate Model

Abstract

Climate changes in 2015–2100 have been simulated with the use of the INM-CM5 climate model following four scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 (single model runs) and SSP3-7.0 (an ensemble of five model runs). Changes in the global mean temperature and spatial distribution of temperature and precipitation are analyzed. The global warming predicted by the INM-CM5 model in the scenarios considered is smaller than that in other CMIP6 models. It is shown that the temperature in the hottest summer month can rise more quickly than the seasonal mean temperature in Russia. An analysis of a change in Arctic sea ice shows no complete Arctic summer ice melting in the 21st century under any model scenario. Changes in the meridional streamfunction in atmosphere and ocean are studied.

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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The model calculations were performed at supercomputers of Joint Supercomputer Center, Russian Academy of Sciences and of Moscow State University.

Funding

This work was carried out at the Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences and was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, project no. 18-05-60184 (calculating the ensemble of SSP3-7.0 scenario experiments and analyzing changes in the Arctic) and by the New Challenges to the Earth’s Climate System program, Russian Academy of Sciences (calculating and analyzing other scenario experiments).

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Correspondence to E. M. Volodin.

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Translated by O. Ponomareva

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Volodin, E.M., Gritsun, A.S. Simulation of Possible Future Climate Changes in the 21st Century in the INM-CM5 Climate Model. Izv. Atmos. Ocean. Phys. 56, 218–228 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0001433820030123

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Keywords:

  • model
  • climate
  • change
  • atmosphere
  • ocean
  • precipitation
  • temperature
  • streamfunction