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Phase Shift between Changes in Global Temperature and Atmospheric CO2 Content under External Emissions of Greenhouse Gases into the Atmosphere

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Abstract

The phase shift between changes in the global surface temperature Tg and atmospheric CO2 content \({{q}_{{{\text{C}}{{{\text{O}}}_{2}}}}}\) has been shown earlier not to characterize causal relationships in the Earth system in the general case. Specifically, the sign of this phase shift under nongreenhouse radiative forcing changes depends on the time scale of this forcing. This paper analyzes the phase shift between changes in the global surface temperature Tg and the atmospheric CO2 content \({{q}_{{{\text{C}}{{{\text{O}}}_{2}}}}}\) under synchronous external emissions of carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere on the basis of numerical experiments with the IAP RAS climatic model and a conceptual climate model with carbon cycle. For a sufficiently large time scale of external forcing, the changes in \({{q}_{{{\text{C}}{{{\text{O}}}_{2}}}}}\) lag relative to the corresponding changes in Tg.

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FUNDING

This study was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, project no. 18-05-00087, and the Fund for State Support of Kazan (Privolzhskii) Federal University aimed at improving the competitive capability among leading scientific and educational centers in the world, using the results obtained in the framework of the RAS Program “Climate Change: Causes, Risks, Consequences, Problems of Adaptation and Regulation”. Estimates of phase shifts in climatic processes were also carried out within the framework of the RSF project (no. 19-17-0240).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, 119017, Moscow, Russia

    K. E. Muryshev, A. V. Eliseev, S. N. Denisov, I. I. Mokhov, M. M. Arzhanov & A. V. Timazhev

  2. Lomonosov Moscow State University, 119991, Moscow, Russia

    A. V. Eliseev & I. I. Mokhov

  3. Kazan Federal University, 420008, Kazan, Russia

    A. V. Eliseev

  4. Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology (State University), 141700, Dolgoprudnyi, Moscow oblast, Russia

    I. I. Mokhov

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  1. K. E. Muryshev
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  4. I. I. Mokhov
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  5. M. M. Arzhanov
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  6. A. V. Timazhev
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Correspondence to K. E. Muryshev.

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Translated by V. Arutyunyan

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Muryshev, K.E., Eliseev, A.V., Denisov, S.N. et al. Phase Shift between Changes in Global Temperature and Atmospheric CO2 Content under External Emissions of Greenhouse Gases into the Atmosphere. Izv. Atmos. Ocean. Phys. 55, 235–241 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0001433819030046

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