Abstract
The GLOBAL-RT database (DB) is composed of long-term radio heat multichannel observation data received from DMSP F08–F17 satellites; it is permanently supplemented with new data on the Earth’s exploration from the space department of the Space Research Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences. Arctic ice-cover areas for regions higher than 60° N latitude were calculated using the DB polar version and NASA Team 2 algorithm, which is widely used in foreign scientific literature. According to the analysis of variability of Arctic ice cover during 1987–2014, 2 months were selected when the Arctic ice cover was maximal (February) and minimal (September), and the average ice cover area was calculated for these months. Confidence intervals of the average values are in the 95–98% limits. Several approximations are derived for the time dependences of the ice-cover maximum and minimum over the period under study. Regression dependences were calculated for polynomials from the first degree (linear) to sextic. It was ascertained that the minimal root-mean-square error of deviation from the approximated curve sharply decreased for the biquadratic polynomial and then varied insignificantly: from 0.5593 for the polynomial of third degree to 0.4560 for the biquadratic polynomial. Hence, the commonly used strictly linear regression with a negative time gradient for the September Arctic ice cover minimum over 30 years should be considered incorrect.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Agarwal, S., Moon, W., and Wettlaufer, J.S., Trends, noise and re-entrant persistence in Arctic sea ice, Proc. R. Soc. A, 2012, vol. 468. doi 10.1098/rspa.2011.0728
Comiso, J.C., Polar Oceans from Space (Atmospheric and Oceanographic Sciences Library), New York: Springer, 2009.
Efron, B., Netraditsionnye metody mnogomernogo statisticheskogo analiza (Nontraditional Methods of MultiDimensional Statistical Analysis), Moscow: Finansy i statistika, 1988.
Ermakov, D.M., Raev, M.D., Suslov, A.I., and Sharkov, E.A., Electronic database of multi-year global thermal radio field of the Earth in the context of a multi-scale study of the ocean–atmosphere system, Issled. Zemli Kosmosa, 2007, no. 1, pp. 7–13.
Ivanov, V.V., Alekseev, V.A., Alekseeva, T.A., Koldunov, N.V., Repina, I.A., and Smirnov, A.V., Is Arctic ice cover becoming seasonal?, Issled. Zemli Kosmosa, 2013, no. 4, pp. 50–65.
Kapsch, M.-L., Gravensen, R.G., and Tjernstrom, M., Springtime atmospheric energy transport and the control of Arctic summer sea-ice extent, Nature Clim. Change, 2013, vol. 3, no. 8, pp. 744–748.
Khromov, S.P. and Petrosyants, M.A., Meteorologiya i klimatologiya (Meteorology and Climatology), Moscow: MGU, 2006.
Leroux, M., Global Warming: Myth or Reality? The Erring Ways of Climatology, Berlin, Heidelberg, New York: Springer/PRAXIS, 2005.
Markus, T., Stroeve, J.C., and Miller, J., Recent changes in Arctic sea ice melt onset, freezeup, and melt season length, J. Geophys. Res., 2009, vol. 114, C12024.
Meier, W.N., Hovelsrud, G.K., van Oort, B.E.H., Key, J.R., Kovacs, K.M., Michel, Ch., Haas, Ch., Granskog, M.A., Gerland, S., Perovich, D.K., Makshtas, A., and Reist, J.D., Arctic sea ice in transformation: A review of recent observed changes and impacts on biology and human activity, Rev. Geophys., 2014. doi 10.1002/2013RG000431
Msadek, R., Vecchi, G.A., Wilton, M., and Gudgel, R.G., Importance of initial conditions in seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice extent, Geophys. Res. Lett., 2014, vol. 41, no. 14, pp. 5208–5215.
Parkinson, C.L. and Comiso, J.C., On the 2012 record Arctic sea cover: Combined impact of preconditioning and an August storm, Geophys. Res. Lett., 2013, vol. 40, pp. 1356–1361. doi 10.1002/grl.50349
Renner, A.H.H., Gerland, S., Haas, Ch., Spreen, G., Beckers, J.F., Hansen, E., Nicolaus, M., and Goodwin, H., Evidence of Arctic sea ice thinning from direct observations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 2014, vol. 41, no. 14, pp. 5029–5036.
Sharkov, E.A., Radioteplovoe distantsionnoe zondirovanie Zemli: fizicheskie osnovy. V 2-kh tomakh. Tom 1 (Remote Thermal Radio Sounding of the Earth: Physical Bases. In Two Volumes, Vol. 1), Moscow: IKI RAN, 2014.
Shepherd, T.G., Atmospheric circulation as a source of uncertainly in climate change projections, Nature Geosci., 2014, vol. 7, no. 10, pp. 703–708.
Shitikov, V.K. and Rozenberg, G.S., Randomizatsiya i butstrep: statisticheskii analiz v biologii i ekologii s ispol’zovaniem R (Randomization and Bootstrap: Statistical Analysis in Biology and Ecology with the Use of R), Tolyatti: Kassandra, 2013.
Spreen, G., Kaleschke, L., and Heygster, G., Sea ice remote sensing AMSR-E 89-GHz channels, J. Geophys. Res., 2008, vol. 113, C02S03. doi 10.1029/2005JC003384
Stroeve, J.C., Markus, T., Boisvert, L., Miller, J., and Barrett, A., Changes in Arctic melt season and implications for sea ice loss, Geophys. Res. Lett., 2014, vol. 41, no. 4, pp. 1216–1225.
Tikhonov, V.V., Repina, I.A., Alekseeva, T.A., Ivanov, V.V., Raev, M.D., Sharkov, E.A, Boyarskii, D.A., and Komarova, N.Yu., Reconstruction of the concentration of Arctic ice cover on the basis of SSM/I data, Sovrem. Probl. Distantsionnogo Zondirovaniya Zemli Kosmosa, 2013, vol. 10, no. 2, pp. 182–193.
Tikhonov, V.V., Boyarskii, D.A., Sharkov, E.A., Raev, M.D., Repina, I.A., Ivanov, V.V., Alexeeva, T.A., and Komarova, N.Yu., Microwave model of radiation from the multilayer “ocean–atmosphere” system for remote sensing studies of the polar regions, Prog. Electromagn. Res. B, 2014b, vol. 59, pp. 123–133.
Tikhonov, V.V., Repina, I.A., Raev, M.D., Sharkov, E.A., Boyarskii, D.A., and Komarova, N.Yu., New algorithm for the reconstruction of ice cover concentration based on passive microwave sounding data, Issled. Zemli Kosmosa, 2014a, no. 2, pp. 35–43.
Tikhonov, V.V., Repina, I.A., Raev, M.D., Sharkov, E.A., Boyarskii, D.A., and Komarova, N.Yu., A complex algorithm for determining the ice situation of polar regions based on satellite microwave radiometry (VASIA 2), Issled. Zemli Kosmosa, 2015, no. 2, pp.78–93).
Vavrus, S. and Harrison, S.P., The impact of sea-ice dynamics on the Arctic climate system, Clim. Dyn., 2003, vol. 20, nos. 7–8, pp. 741–757.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Original Russian Text © M.D. Raev, E.A. Sharkov, V.V. Tikhonov, I.A. Repina, N.Yu. Komarova, 2015, published in Issledovanie Zemli iz Kosmosa, 2015, No. 2, pp. 41–48.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Raev, M.D., Sharkov, E.A., Tikhonov, V.V. et al. Peculiarities of stochastic regime of Arctic ice cover time evolution over 1987–2014 from microwave satellite sounding on the basis of NASA team 2 algorithm. Izv. Atmos. Ocean. Phys. 51, 929–934 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0001433815090169
Received:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S0001433815090169