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Relationship between El-Niño/Southern Oscillation and the Indian monsoon

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Abstract

The relationship between El-Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian monsoon is analyzed using cross-wavelet analysis and Granger causality estimation from empirical data for the period 1871-2003. In addition to the previously known negative correlation between the processes analyzed, their bidirectional coupling is detected and characteristics of its inertia and nonlinearity are estimated. The results from an analysis of variations in coupling characteristics in a moving window with a width ranging from 10 to 100 years demonstrate an alternation of different regimes of processes interaction, including intervals of almost unidirectional coupling.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Pyzhevskii 3, Moscow, 119017, Russia

    I. I. Mokhov & S. S. Kozlenko

  2. Saratov Branch, Kotel’nikov Institute of Radio Engineering and Electronics, Russian Academy of Sciences, ul. Zelenaya 38, Saratov, 410019, Russia

    D. A. Smirnov & P. I. Nakonechny

  3. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, D 14412, Potsdam, 601203, Germany

    J. Kurths

Authors
  1. I. I. Mokhov
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  2. D. A. Smirnov
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  3. P. I. Nakonechny
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  4. S. S. Kozlenko
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  5. J. Kurths
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Correspondence to I. I. Mokhov.

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Original Russian Text © I.I. Mokhov, D.A. Smirnov, P.I. Nakonechny, S.S. Kozlenko, J. Kurths, 2012, published in Izvestiya AN. Fizika Atmosfery i Okeana, 2012, Vol. 48, No. 1, pp. 56–66.

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Mokhov, I.I., Smirnov, D.A., Nakonechny, P.I. et al. Relationship between El-Niño/Southern Oscillation and the Indian monsoon. Izv. Atmos. Ocean. Phys. 48, 47–56 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0001433812010082

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S0001433812010082

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