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Are mega earthquakes predictable?


In the course of the ongoing since 1992 Global Test of the intermediate-term middle-range earthquake forecast/predictions by the algorithms M8 and MSc place and time of each of the mega-earthquakes of 27 February 2010 in Chile and 11 March 2011 in Japan were recognized as in state of increased probability of such events in advance their occurrences. In conjunction with a retrospective analysis of seismic activity preceding the first of a series of mega earthquakes of the 21st century, i.e., 26 December 2004 in the Indian Ocean, these evidences give grounds for assuming that the algorithms of proven validated effectiveness in magnitude ranges M7.5+ and M8.0+ can be applied to predict the mega-earthquakes as well.

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Original Russian Text © V.G. Kossobokov, 2011, published in Geofizicheskie protsessy i biosfera, 2011, Vol. 10, No. 2, pp. 5–21.

The article was translated by the authors.

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Kossobokov, V.G. Are mega earthquakes predictable?. Izv. Atmos. Ocean. Phys. 47, 951–961 (2011).

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  • earthquake
  • mega earthquake
  • forecast
  • prediction
  • algorithm
  • statistical hypothesis testing
  • random guessing
  • confidence level