Abstract
The sensitivity of the characteristics of atmospheric centers of action (ACAs) in the Northern Hemisphere to global climate changes is analyzed on the basis of models of different complexity, including the climate model of intermediate complexity of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences and the ECHAM4/OPYC3 and HadCM3 general circulation models of the atmosphere and ocean. The emphasis is on the analysis of trends of the change in ACA characteristics in winter, when the long-term global warming is most considerable. The global climate models are shown to be able to describe not only the intermediate regimes of ACAs but also their dynamics. In particular, ECHAM4/OPYC3 is capable of reproducing the statistically significant connection of the characteristics of the North Pacific centers of action with El Niño/La Niña events, revealed from observational data. With the use of the results of the global climate models, the possible changes in the characteristics of centers of action in the 21st century are estimated for an increased content of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
C. G. Rossby, et al., “Relation between Variations in the Intensity of the Zonal Circulation of the Atmosphere and the Displacements of the Semi-Permanent Centers of Action,” J. Marine Res. II, 38–55 (1939).
B. J. Haurwitz, “The Motion of Atmospheric Disturbances on the Spherical Earth,” Marine Res. III, 254–267 (1940).
E. N. Blinova, “Hydrodynamic Theory of Pressure Waves, Temperature Waves, and Atmospheric Centers of Action,” Dokl. Akad. Nauk 39(7), 284–287 (1943).
S. Hameed, W. Shi, J. Boyle, and B. Santer, “Investigation of the Centers of Action in the Northern Atlantic and North Pacific in the ECHAM AMIP Simulation,” Proceedings of the First International AMIP Scientific Conference, (WCRP-92, 1992), WMP-TD-No. 732, pp. 221–226.
I. I. Mokhov and V. K. Petukhov, “Atmospheric Centers of Action and Tendencies of Their Change,” Izv. Akad. Nauk, Fiz. Atmos. Okeana 36, 321–329 (2000) [Izv., Atmos. Ocean. Phys. 36, 292–299 (2000)].
I. I. Mokhov and V. Ch. Khon, “Atmospheric Centers of Action in Northern Hemisphere from Observations and Simulations: Interannual Variability and Long-Term Tendencies of Change,” in Research Activities in Atmospheric and Oceanic Modelling, Ed. by J. Cote (World Climate Research Programme, Geneva, 2004), WMO TD-No. 1220, pp. 07-35–07-36.
I. I. Mokhov and V. Ch. Khon, “Interannual Variability and Long-Term Tendencies of Change in Atmospheric Centers of Action in the Northern Hemisphere: Analyses of Observational Data,” Izv. Akad. Nauk, Fiz. Atmos. Okeana 41, 723–732 (2005) [Izv., Atmos. Ocean. Phys. 41, 657–666 (2005)].
E. Roeckner, K. Arpe, L. Bengtsson, et al., The Atmospheric General Circulation Model ECHAM4: Model Description and Simulation of Present-Day Climate (Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, 1996), Report No. 218.
J. M. Oberhuber, The OPYC Ocean General Circulation Model (Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, 1993), Report No. 7.
C. Gordon, C. Cooper, C. A. Senior, et al., “The Simulation of SST, Sea Ice Extents and Ocean Heat Transports in a Version of the Hadley Centre Coupled Model without Flux Adjustments,” Clim. Dyn. 16, 147–168 (2000).
V. K. Petoukhov, I. I. Mokhov, A. V. Eliseev, and V. A. Semenov, The IAP RAS Global Climate Model (Dialogue-MSU, Moscow, 1998).
I. I. Mokhov, A. V. Eliseev, P. F. Demchenko, et al., “Climatic Changes and Their Estimation with the Use of the IAP RAS Global Model,” Dokl. Akad. Nauk 402, 243–247 (2005).
M. Claussen, L. A. Mysak, A. J. Weaver, et al., “Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity: Closing the Gap in the Spectrum of Climate System Models,” Clim. Dyn. 18, 579–586 (2002).
V. Petoukhov, M. Claussen, A. Berger, et al., “EMIC Intercomparison Project (EMIP-CO2): Comparative Analysis of EMIC Simulations of Current Climate and Equilibrium and Transient Reponses to Atmospheric CO2 Doubling,” Clim. Dyn. 25, 363–385 (2005).
Climate Change: The Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Ed. by J. T. Houghton, B. A. Callander, and S. K. Varney (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1992).
P. D. Jones, “The Early Twentieth Century Arctic High—Fact or Fiction?,” Clim. Dyn. 1, 63–75 (1987).
R. Kistler et al., “The NCEP/NCAR 50-Year Reanalysis: Monthly Means CD-ROM and Documentation,” Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 82, 247–266 (2001).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Additional information
Original Russian Text © V.Ch. Khon, I.I. Mokhov, 2006, published in Izvestiya AN. Fizika Atmosfery i Okeana, 2006, Vol. 42, No. 6, pp. 749–756.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Khon, V.C., Mokhov, I.I. Model estimates for the sensitivity of atmospheric centers of action to global climate changes. Izv. Atmos. Ocean. Phys. 42, 688–695 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0001433806060028
Received:
Accepted:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S0001433806060028