Abstract
The Northern Hemisphere mean surface temperature has shown a significant positive trend over the past two centuries. On the basis of the well-known reconstructions of global climate from proxy data, the conclusion is made that the current warming has been unprecedented during at least the past two millennia. On the other hand, it was demonstrated in [6] that the existing statistical models strongly underestimate the low-frequency variability of global annual mean temperature, thus making the conclusion drawn above questionable. At present, the results of [6] are interpreted as evidence that the Mann reconstruction is invalid [1]. To our knowledge, however, it is too early to draw such conclusions. What is the cause of smoothing low-frequency variability? To what extent are various statistical models used for paleoclimate reconstruction that is subject to this effect? To answer these questions, numerical experiments are performed with data sets of annual mean surface temperature over the past millennium that are simulated with the ECHO-G coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
M. E. Mann, R. S. Bradley, and M. K. Hughest, “Global-Scale Temperature Patterns and Climate Forcing over the Past Six Centuries,” Nature 392, 779–787 (1998).
M. E. Mann, R. S. Bradley, and M. K. Hughest, “Northern Hemisphere Temperatures During the Past Millennium: Inferences, Uncertainties, and Limitations,” Geophys. Res. Lett. 26, 759–762 (1999).
P. D. Jones, K. R. Briffa, T. P. Barnett, and S. Tett, “High-Resolution Paleoclimatic Records for the Last Millennium: Interpretation, Integration and Comparison with General Circulation Model Control Run Temperatures,” The Holocene 8, 455–471 (1998).
K. R. Briffa, “Annual Climate Variability in the Holocene: Interpreting the Message of Ancient Trees,” Quatern. Sci. Rev. 19, 87–105 (2000).
R. McKitrick and S. McIntyre, “Corrections to the Mann et al. (1998) Proxy Data Base and Northern Hemispheric Average Temperature Series,” Energy Environ. 14, 751–771 (2003).
H. Storch, E. Zorita, J. Jones, et al., “Reconstructing Past Climate from Noisy Data,” Science 306, 679–682 (2004).
E. Zorita, F. Gonzalez-Rouco, and S. Legutke, “Testing the Mann et al. (1998) Approach to Paleoclimate Reconstructions in the Context of a 1000-yr Control Simulation with the ECHO-G Coupled Climate Model,” J. Clim. 16, 1378–1390 (2003).
P. D. Jones and M. E. Mann, “Climate over Past Millennia,” Rev. Geophys. 42, doi:10.1029/2003RG000143 (2004).
A. I. Chavro and V. P. Dymnikov, Methods of Mathematical Statistics in Atmospheric Physics (IVM RAN, Moscow, 2000) [in Russian].
A. M. Oboukhov, “On Statistical Orthogonal Expansions of Empirical Functions,” Izv. Akad. Nauk SSSR, Ser. Geofiz., No. 3, 432–439 (1960).
E. V. Dmitriev, “Analysis of Methods for Processing Proxi Measurements of Geophysical Quantities and Estimating Errors in Their Interpretation,” Inform.-Izmerit. Upravl. Sist. 2(5), 12–22 (2004).
Yu. P. Pyt’ev and A. I. Chulichkov, “Recurrent Techniques of Measurement Reduction,” Mat. Model. 1(8), 22–44 (1989).
A. I. Chavro and E. V. Dmitriev, “Statistical Model for Reconstruction of the Regional Structure of Geophysical Fields,” Meteorol. Gidrol., No. 6, 39–49 (2002).
M. E. Mann and S. Rutherford, “Climate Reconstruction Using ‘Pseudoproxies’,” Geophys. Res. Lett. 29, 1391–1394 (2002).
S. G. Dobrovol’skii, Climatic Changes in the Hydrosphere-Atmosphere System (Geos, Moscow, 2002) [in Russian].
A. Moberg, D. M. Sonechkin, K. Holmgren, et al., “Highly Variable Northern Hemisphere Temperatures Reconstructed from Low-and High-Resolution Proxy Data,” Nature 433, 613–617 (2005).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Additional information
Original Russian Text © E.V. Dmitriev, A.I. Chavro, 2006, published in Izvestiya AN. Fizika Atmosfery i Okeana, 2006, Vol. 42, No. 5, pp. 637–649.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Dmitriev, E.V., Chavro, A.I. Possible causes of the underestimation of paleoclimate low-frequency variability by statistical methods. Izv. Atmos. Ocean. Phys. 42, 586–597 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0001433806050057
Received:
Accepted:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S0001433806050057