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Simulation of climate changes in the 20th–22nd centuries with a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model

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Abstract

The results of numerical experiments with a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model on the reproduction of climate changes during the 20th century and on the simulation of possible climate changes during the 21st–22nd centuries according to three IPCC scenarios of variations in the concentrations of greenhouse and other gases, as well as the results of the experiments with the doubled and quadruple concentrations of CO2, are considered. An increase in the near-surface air temperature during the 20th century and the features of the observed climate changes, such as warming in 1940–1950 and its slowing down in 1960–1970, are adequately reproduced in the model. According to the model, the air-temperature increase during the 22nd century (as compared to the end of the 20th century) varies from 2 K for the most moderate scenario to 5 K for the warmest scenario. This estimate is somewhat lower than the expected warming averaged over the data of all models presented in the third IPCC report. According to model data, in the 22nd century, under all scenarios, at the end of summer, a complete or almost complete sea-ice melting will occur in the Arctic. According to the model, by the year 2200, the sea level will vary by 20 to 45 cm as compared to the level at the end of the 20th century.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences, ul. Gubkina 8, Moscow, 119991, Russia

    E. M. Volodin & N. A. Diansky

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  1. E. M. Volodin
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  2. N. A. Diansky
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Original Russian Text © E.M. Volodin, N.A. Diansky, 2006, published in Izvestiya AN. Fizika Atmosfery i Okeana, 2006, Vol. 42, No. 3, pp. 291–306.

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Volodin, E.M., Diansky, N.A. Simulation of climate changes in the 20th–22nd centuries with a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. Izv. Atmos. Ocean. Phys. 42, 267–281 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0001433806030017

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S0001433806030017

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