Abstract
Physical factors affecting El Niño events are subdivided into two categories. The first category includes those physical factors that have been demonstrated by modern science to have an effect on El Niño events. The second category comprises those physical factors that are only a hypothesis based on correlations that have yet to be corroborated to have affected El Niño events. This paper proposes the concept of a cause chain for an El Niño, pointing out that physical factors are linked and interdependent. The feedback effect and decrease-increase effect upon physical factors within the cause chain provide results superior to any single theory. We can only further explore the feedback effect and decrease-increase effect together with comprehensive analysis on the contributive ratio of these physical factors so as to improve the forecast accuracy of El Niño events. This represents a new way of thinking in the explanation of the cause of El Niño events.
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Feng, L.H., Luo, G.Y. Cause chain of an El Niño event in the eastern equatorial pacific and feedback and decrease-increase effects. Izv. Atmos. Ocean. Phys. 42, 248–253 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0001433806020113
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S0001433806020113