Advertisement

Russian Journal of Ecology

, Volume 40, Issue 1, pp 6–17 | Cite as

Forest ecosystems of the volga basin under conditions of global climate warming: Local ecological prediction

  • E. G. Kolomyts
Article
  • 43 Downloads

Abstract

Prediction based on one of the latest extreme prognostic models, the Hadley Centre Model HadCM3 (version A2) has been performed using an original method of discrete empirical statistical modeling of ecosystems. Probabilistic scenarios of the expected changes in summer soil moisture content until the mid-22nd century and corresponding structural and functional changes in forest ecosystems for different zonal/regional conditions of the Volga basin are described.

Key words

ecosystem biogeocenosis climatic changes empirical statistical modeling landscape-ecological prediction 

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Aber, J., Nelson, R.P., Mcnulty, St., et al., Forest Processes and Global Environmental Change: Predicting the Effects of Individual and Multiple Stressors, BioScience, 2001, vol. 51, no. 9, pp. 735–751.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Andreev, V.L., Klassifikatsionnye postroeniya v ekologii i sistematike (Classification Constructs in Ecology and Systematics), Moscow: Nauka, 1980.Google Scholar
  3. Bonan, G.B., Polland, D., and Thompson, S.L., Effect of Boreal Forest Vegetation on Global Climate Warming, Nature, 1992, no. 359, pp. 716–718.Google Scholar
  4. Budyko, M.I., Klimat i zhizn’ (Climate and Life), Leningrad: Gidrometeoizdat, 1971.Google Scholar
  5. Budyko, M.I., Klimat v proshlom i budushchem (Climate in the Past and Future), Leningrad: Gidrometeoizdat, 1980.Google Scholar
  6. Climate Change 1995. The Science of Climatic Change, Houghton, J.T., Meira Filho, L.G., Callander, B.A., et al., Eds., Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press, 1996.Google Scholar
  7. Dahl, E., Impact of Climatic Change on Terrestrial Ecosystems, in Impacts of Climatic Change on Natural Ecosystems (with Emphasis on Boreal and Arctic/Alpine Areas), Trondheim: NINA and DN, 1993, pp. 81–83.Google Scholar
  8. Ekosistemy Tellermanovskogo lesa (Ecosystems of the Tellerman Forest), — Osipov, V.V., Ed., Moscow: Nauka, 2004.Google Scholar
  9. Emanuel, W.R., Shugart, H.H., and Stevenson, M.R., Climatic Changes and the Boreal-Scale Distribution of Terrestrial Ecosystem Complexes, Climatic Change, 1985, no. 7, pp. 29–43.Google Scholar
  10. Glazovskaya, M.A., Geokhimicheskie osnovy tipologii i metodiki issledovanii prirodnykh landshaftov (Geochemical Principles of Typology and Methods of Studies on Natural Landscapes), Moscow: Mosk. Gos. Univ., 1964.Google Scholar
  11. Gordon, C., Cooper, C., Senior, C.A., et al., The Simulation of SST, Sea Ice Extents and Ocean Heat Transport in a Version of the Hadley Centre Coupled Model without Flux Adjustments, Climate Dynamics, 2000, vol. 16, pp. 147–168.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Kolomyts, E.G., Organization and Stability of Crooked Forest Ecosystems in the Boreal Ecotone of the Russian Plain, Izv. Akad. Nauk, Ser. Geogr., 1995, no. 3, pp. 37–51.Google Scholar
  13. Kolomyts, E.G., Regional’naya model’ global’nykh izmenenii prirodnoi sredy (A Regional Model of Global Changes in the Natural Environment), Moscow: Nauka, 2003.Google Scholar
  14. Kolomyts, E.G., Multizonality of Local Geosystems as a Response to Global Climate Change, Izv. Akad. Nauk, Ser. Geogr., 2006, no. 2, pp. 35–47.Google Scholar
  15. Neishtadt, M.I., Istoriya lesov i paleogeografiya SSSR v golotsene (The History of Forests and Paleogeography of the USSR Territory in the Holocene), Moscow: Akad. Nauk SSSR, 1957.Google Scholar
  16. Odum, E., Fundamentals of Ecology, Philadelphia: Saunders, 1971. Translated under the title Osnovy ekologii, Moscow: Mir, 1975.Google Scholar
  17. Otsenki ekologicheskikh i sotsial’no-ekonomicheskikh posledstvii izmenenii klimata. Doklad Rabochei gruppy II MGEIK (Predsedatel’ Yu.A. Izrael’) (Assessment of Ecological and Socioeconomic Consequences of Climate Change. Report of the IPCC Working Group II Presided by Yu.A. Izrael’), St. Petersburg: Gidrometeoizdat, 1992.Google Scholar
  18. Pope, V.D., Gallani, M.L., Rowntree, P.R., and Stratton, R.A., The Impact of New Physical Parameterizations in Hadley Centre Climate Model, HadCM3, Climate Dynamics, 2000, vol. 16, pp. 123–146.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Predstoyashchie izmeneniya klimata. Sovmestnyi Sovetsko-Amerikanskii otchet o klimate i ego izmeneniyakh (Forthcoming Climate Changes: Joint Soviet-American Report on Clomate and Its Cahnges), Budyko, M.I. et al., Eds., Leningrad: Gidrometeoizdat, 1991.Google Scholar
  20. Puzachenko, Yu.G. and Skulkin, V.S., Struktura rastitel’nosti lesnoi zony SSSR: Sistemnyi analiz (Vegetation Structure in the Forest Zone of the Soviet Union: Systems Analysis), Moscow: Nauka, 1981.Google Scholar
  21. Ranson, K.J., Levine, E.R., Knox, R.J., et al., Using a Set of Simulation Models for Understanding the Dynamics of Boreal Forest Ecosystems, Ustoichivoe razvitie boreal’nykh lesov: Tr. VII ezhegodn. konf. MAIBL. (Sustainable Development of Boreal Forests: Proc. VII Annu. Conf. of the International Boreal Forest Research Association), Moscow: VNIITslesresurs, 1997, pp. 101–111.Google Scholar
  22. Sostoyanie i kompleksnyi monitoring prirodnoi sredy i klimata. Predely izmenenii (The State and Comprehensive Monitoring of the Natural Environment and Climate: Limits of Change), Izrael’, Yu.A, Ed., Moscow: Nauka, 2001.Google Scholar
  23. Sprygin, I.I., Materials on the Study of Vegetation in the Middle Volga Region, in Nauchnoe nasledstvo (Scientific Heritage), Moscow: Nauka, 1986, vol. 11.Google Scholar
  24. Timofeeff-Ressovsky, N.V. and Tyuryukanov, A.N., On Elementary Biochorological Divisions of the Biosphere, Byull. Mosk. O-va Ispyt. Prir., Otd. Biol., Moscow, 1966, vol. 71,issue 1, pp. 123–132.Google Scholar
  25. Velichko, A.A. and Klimanov, V.A., Climatic Conditions in the Northern Hemisphere 5000–6000 Years Ago, Izv. Akad. Nauk SSSR, Ser. Geogr., 1990, no. 5, pp. 38–52.Google Scholar
  26. Velichko, A.A., Grichuk, V.P., Gurtovaya, E.E., and Zelikson, E.M., Paleoclimate of the USSR Territory in the Optimum of the Ultimate (Mikulino) Interplacial, Izv. Akad. Nauk SSSR, Ser. Geogr., 1983, no. 6, pp. 30–45.Google Scholar
  27. Vysotskii, G.N., Izbrannye trudy (Selected Works), Moscow: Sel’khozgiz, 1960.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© MAIK Nauka 2009

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Institute of Ecology of the Volga BasinRussian Academy of SciencesTolyattiRussia

Personalised recommendations