The Impact of Climate Change on Surface, Subsurface, and Groundwater Flow: A Case Study of the Oka River (European Russia)
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The article considers an approach to evaluating the change in surface, subsurface and groundwater flow on a large river catchment exemplified by the Oka River basin. The study is based on the synthesis of a physical-mathematical model of runoff formation and atmosphere–ocean general circulation models. The paper presents the results of calibration and verification of a hydrological model over a period of history, as well as the assessment of reproduction accuracy of meteorological and hydrological characteristics according to the data of global climate models and observation data. Based on an ensemble of atmosphere–ocean general circulation models, the changes in meteorological (air temperature, precipitation, air humidity deficit) and hydrological (surface runoff, soil moisture content, groundwater flow) characteristics by the middle and the end of the 21st century have been calculated, under the scenarios RCP 2.6 and RCP 6.0 with regard to the historical period.
Keywords:runoff formation model climate change the Oka River surface, subsurface and groundwater flow
This study was supported by the Russian Science Foundation (the development of a technique for evaluating surface, subsurface and groundwater flow—project no. 17-77-30006; the development of the runoff formation model using global databases—project no. 19-17-00215) and State scientific assignment of WPI RAS (numerical experiments using hydrological and climate models for the Oka R. basin—no. 0147-2019-0001 (AAAA-A18-118022090056-0)).
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