Assessment of the Long-Term Hydrological Forecast Skill Evolution across Lead-Times within the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Framework
- 6 Downloads
Long-term or seasonal forecasting is crucial for the management of large water systems. Advances in catchment hydrology, such as mathematical models of catchment processes, are proven to be capable of creating reliable streamflow forecasting systems. In this study, the limits of predictability of streamflow in a snowmelt-dominated river basin are examined and a new illustration of the forecast efficiency across different issue dates and lead times—the so-called “forecastability map”—is demonstrated.
Keywordslong-term hydrological forecasting forecast skill hydrological predictability
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
- 1.Bulygina, O.N., Razuvaev, V.N., and Aleksandrova, T.M., Description of daily air temperature and precipitation data set from Russian meteorological stations and from some meteorological stations over the former USSR territory (TTTR) 2017. Retrieved from https://doi.org/meteo.ru/english/climate/descrip11.htm.Google Scholar
- 2.Dong, Chunyu, Remote sensing, hydrological modeling and in situ observations in snow cover research: A review. J. Hydrol., 2018, vol. 561, pp. 573–583. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JHYDROL.2018.04.027Google Scholar
- 3.Gelfan, A.N., Moreydo, V.M., Motovilov, Y.G., and Solomatine, D.P., Long-term ensemble forecast of snowmelt inflow into the Cheboksary Reservoir under two different weather scenarios, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 2018, vol. 22, no. 4, pp. 2073–2089. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2073-2018CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- 6.Lettenmaier, D.P., and Waddle Terry R. Forecasting Seasonal Snowmelt Runoff: Summary of Experience with Two Models Applied to Three Cascade Mountain, WADrainages, 1978, Seattle, Washington.Google Scholar
- 10.Nash, J.E. and Sutcliffe, J.V., River flow forecasting through conceptual models, part—A discussion of principles. J. Hydrol., 1970, vol. 10, no. 3, pp. 282–290. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(70)90255-6Google Scholar
- 11.Report of a Workshop on Predictability & Limits-To-Prediction in Hydrologic Systems, 2002, Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/10337Google Scholar