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‘A Train Collision in the Making’? the Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction and the Transatlantic Alliance

  • Part III: Strategic Issues and Alliance Cohesion
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Notes

  1. On this point, see Terriff, ‘Fear and Loathing in NATO: The Atlantic Alliance after the Crisis over Iraq’, Special Issue of Perspectives on European Politics and Society, 4 (2004) pp. 419–446.

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  2. Quoted in Joseph Fitchett, ‘Washington’s Pursuit of Missile Defense Drives Wedge in NATO’, International Herald Tribune, February 15, 2000.

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  3. The use of the term ‘European’ effectively includes Canada.

  4. ‘The Alliance’s Strategic Concept agreed by the Heads of State and Government participating in the meeting of the North Atlantic Council’, Rome, November 8, 1991, Art. 11.

  5. Ibid., An. 49.

  6. Quoted in Martin Sieff, ‘The Nuclear Bee-Sting Theory’, The National Interest, 21 (2003).

  7. John Lancaster, ‘Aspin Pledges New Military Efforts to Counter Weapons Proliferation’, Washington Post, December 8, 1993. On the internal origins, and debates, about the U.S. initiative

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  8. see Henry D. Sokolski, ‘Mission Impossible’, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientist, 57 (2001) pp. 62–68.

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  9. See ‘Aspin Emphasizes Missile Defense In Proliferation Approach’, Defense Daily, December 8, 1993, p. 347.

  10. Natalie J. Goldberg, ‘Report: Skittish on counterproliferation’, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 50, (1994).

  11. Declaration of the Heads of State and Government participating in the meeting of the North Atlantic Council (‘The Brussels Summit Declaration’), Brussels, January 11, 1994, Art. 1.

  12. For a more detailed discussion of the views of the European allies, see Robert Joseph, ‘Proliferation, Counter-Proliferation and NATO’, Survival, 38 (1996), pp. 117–18.

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  13. Goldberg, ‘Report: Skittish on counterproliferation’.

  14. Ibid.

  15. Joseph, ‘Proliferation, Counter-Proliferation and NATO’, pp. 117-18.

  16. Declaration of the Heads of State and Government participating in the meeting of the North Atlantic Council (‘The Brussels Summit Declaration’) Brussels, January 11, 1994, Art. 17.

  17. See Aston B. Carter and David Omand, ‘Countering the proliferation risks: Adapting the Alliance to the new security environment’, NATO Review, 44 (1996), pp. 10–15.

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  18. Final Communiqué, Ministerial Meeting of the North Atlantic Council, Berlin, June 3, 1996, Press Communiqué M-NAC-1(96)63 Art. 7. See also, Final Communiqué, Meeting of the Defence Planning Committee in Ministerial Session, Brussels, June 13, 1996, M-DPC/NPG- 1(96)88, Art. 6.

  19. Joachim Krause, ‘Proliferation Risks and their Strategic Relevance: What Role for NATO?’, Survival, 37 (1995), p. 135.

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  20. See, for example, Executive Summary of the Report of the Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States, July 15, 1998; National Intelligence Council, Foreign Missile Developments and the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States Through 2015, September 1999; and United States Commission on National Security/21 st Century, New World Coming: American Security in the 21st Century, Phase I Report on the Emerging Global Security Environment for the First Quarter of the 21st Century, September 15, 1999.

  21. For a good example of the compelling nature of the arguments that the U.S. needed to defend itself from at least limited ballistic missile attacks, see Ivo H. Daalder, James M. Goldgeier, and James M. Lindsey, ‘Deploying NMD: Not Whether but How’, Survival, 42 (2000), pp. 6–28.

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  22. See Elizabeth Becker, ‘Allies Fear U.S. Project May Renew Arms Race’, New York Times, November 20, 1999

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  23. and Doug Struck, ‘Allies Signal Opposition to a U.S. Missile Shield’, International Herald Tribune, July 14, 2000.

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  24. Quoted in William Drozdiak, ‘Possible U.S. Missile Shield Alarms Europe: Allies Fear Arms Race, Diminished Security Ties’, Washington Post, November 6, 1999.

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  25. As French Foreign Minister Hubert Védrine reportedly observed following the July 2000 G8 meeting, ‘All those who voiced their concerns to the Americans have stressed the need not to be disproportionate between the threat and the destabilizing possibilities of a NMD program’. Quoted in Struck, ‘Allies Signal Opposition To a U.S. Missile Shield’. See also Becker, ‘Allies Fear U.S. Project May Renew Arms Race’.

  26. Quoted in Becker, ‘Allies Fear U.S. Project May Renew Arms Race’

  27. Quoted in Struck, ‘Allies Signal Opposition To a U.S. Missile Shield’.

  28. Quoted in Fitchett, ‘Washington’s Pursuit of Missile Defense Drives Wedge in NATO’.

  29. See Jim Garamone, ‘It’s Not “National” or “Theater”, It’s Just Missile Defense’, American Forces Press Service, March 9, 2001.

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  30. See Jim Garamone, ‘Rumsfeld Speaks on Missile Defense, Cooperation’, American Forces Press Service, February 5, 2001.

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  31. ‘In Bush’s Words: ‘Substantial Advantages of Intercepting Missiles Early’, New York Times, May 2, 2001.

  32. Quoted in Associated Press, ‘World Wary About Bush Missile Plan’, New York Times, May 2, 2001.

  33. See, for example, Graham Allison, ‘We Must Act As If He Has The Bomb’, Washington Post, November 18, 2001; Associated Press, ‘Trail of Clues Left by Qaeda Hints Darkly at Arms Plan’, New York Times, November 16, 2001

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  34. and Giles Tremlett, ‘Nerve gas find at camp’, The Guardian. November 20, 2001.

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  35. Quoted in Elisabeth Bumiller, ‘Next Target in Terror War: Bush Says It Could Be Iraq’, New York Times, November 27, 2001.

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  36. Bush went on to warn, ‘America will do what is necessary to ensure our nation’s security.… I will not wait on events, while dangers gather. I will not stand by, as peril draws closer and closer. The United States of America will not permit the world’s most dangerous regimes to threaten us with the world’s most destructive weapons’. All President Bush’s quotes from The White House, ‘President Delivers State of the Union Address: The President’s State of the Union Address’, Washington, D.C., January 29, 2002.

  37. Quoted in Howard LaFranchi, ‘US hard line on terrorism alienates allies’, Christian Science Monitor, February 12, 2002.

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  38. Jospin quoted in Victor Mallet, ‘France urges US to ease stance on terrorism’, FT.com, February 8, 2001.

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  39. Chris Patten, ‘Jaw-jaw, not war-war’, FT.com, February 14, 2002.

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  40. Also see, for example, Judy Dempsey, ‘US foreign policy refuses to heed Europe’s divided voices’, FT.com, February 12, 2002.

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  41. See, for example, ‘Text of Bush’s Speech at West Point’, New York Times, June 1, 2002.

  42. Specifically, the document stated: ‘We will enhance diplomacy, arms control, multilateral export controls, and threat reduction assistance that impede states and terrorists seeking WMD, and when necessary, interdict enabling technologies and materials. We will continue to build coalitions to support these efforts, encouraging their increased political and financial support for nonproliferation and threat reduction programs’.

  43. See The White House, The New Security Strategy of the United States, September 20, 2002.

  44. ‘Interview With Jacques Chirac’, New York Times, September 8, 2002.

  45. Quoted in Glenn Frankel, ‘New U.S. Doctrine Worries Europeans: Decades of Coalition-Building Seen at Risk’, Washington Post, September 30, 2002.

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  46. Adding to European concerns was the U.S.’ new nuclear posture, promulgated in December 2002, which indicated that the U.S. would pursue a new generation of small nuclear weapons for bunker busting, attacking hardened site and so on. The implication was that the U.S. might be willing, as part of its strategy of preemption, to launch a nuclear attack on a non-nuclear state. See Mike Allen and Barton Gellman, ‘Pre-emptive Strikes Part of U.S. Strategic Doctrine: ‘All Options’ Open for Countering Unconventional Arms’, Washington Post, December 11, 2002.

  47. For an account of the ins and outs of the transatlantic debates in the lead up to the invasion of Iraq, see Elizabeth Pond, Friendly Fire: The New Death of the Transatlantic Alliance, Washington, DC, Brookings Institution Press, for the European Union Studies Association, 2003

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  48. and Philip H. Gordon and Jeremy Shapiro, Allies at War: America, Europe and the Crisis over Iraq, Washington, DC, Brookings Institution Press, 2004.

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  49. For an overview of the PSI, see U.S. Department of State, Proliferation Security Initiative, USinfo.State.gov (International Information Programs), posted June 2004, at http://usinfo.state.gov/products/pubs/proliferation/.

  50. Among the most notable of the interdictions undertaken by the signatories was the seizure of centrifuge parts headed to Libya in September 2003. See Robin Wright, ‘Ship Incident May Have Swayed Libya: Centrifuges Intercepted in September’, Washington Post, January 1, 2004.

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  51. David Sanger, ‘Bush Proposes Strict Limits on Black Market Sale of Equipment to Make Nuclear Fuel’, NYT.com, February 12, 2004.

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  52. Quoted Judy Dempsey and Roula Khalaf, ‘Europe hails Bush’s nuclear curbs call’, Ft.com, February 12, 2004.

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  53. ‘Istanbul Summit Communique’, Issued by the Heads of State and Government participating in the meeting of the North Atlantic Council, June 28, 2004, NATO Press Release (2004)096, June 28, 2004, Paragraph 14.

  54. Ibid., Paragraph 15.

  55. Some European allies have criticized the U.S. for the differential manner that it has dealt with the three ‘axis of evil’ states, noting that North Korea is a more significant threat than Iraq, yet Washington has eschewed negotiations with Iraq as being pointless and is seeking to negotiate with Pyongyang. The ease with which the U.S. can be deterred explains this differential. As Robert Einhorn, former U.S. Assistant Secretary for Non-proliferation during the Clinton Administration, has observed, ‘North Korea has a lot of artillery along the border that could reach Seoul. That’s why they are so dangerous because they can threaten to kill hundreds of thousands of people with credibility......If anyone sits down and looks at the consequences of confrontation with North Korea they realize it would be very dire and negotiation starts to look a better option’. Quoted in Andrew Ward, ‘North Korea: The bomb as bargaining chip’, Ft.Com, July 10, 2002.

  56. It can be argued that one of the aims of the Bush Administration, or at least some of its key members, was that effecting regime change in Iraq would serve to send a compelling signal to Iran, along with North Korea and other potential proliferators, that they too, unless they changed their proliférant behavior, would be the next targets. Indeed, as an unnamed British diplomat reportedly claimed prior to the invasion, ‘Everyone wants to go to Baghdad, but real men want to go to Tehran.’ Quoted in Carol Rivers, ‘Bush’s Foreign Policy May Be All Guns, No Butter’, Women’s Enews, October 23, 2002, at http://www.womensenews.org/article.cfin?aid=1081 (accessed 02/08/2004).

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  57. Iran rebuffs Europe on atom plans’, International Herald Tribune, August 2, 2004.

  58. A senior U.S. official reportedly has argued that, ‘The Iranians want to drive a wedge between the Europeans and the United States and to drag this process out as long as they can in order to do what they want to do in terms of developing a nuclear capability’. Quoted in Reuters, ‘U.S. Tells Europeans to “Hold Firm” on Iran’, New York Times, July 28, 2004.

  59. See Jim Lobe, ‘New Battle Joined Between Realists and Neo-Cons on Iran’, LewRockwell.com, July 21, 2004, at http://www.lewrockwell.com/ips/lobel09.html (accessed 21/07/2004).

  60. On the removal of this aspect of the EU’s new security strategy, see Francois Heisbourg, ‘The “European Security Strategy” is not a security strategy’, in Stephen Everts, et al, A European Way of War, London, Centre for European Reform, 2004, pp. 27–40.

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  61. Howard LaFranchi, ‘Anti-Iran sentiment hardening fast’, Christian Science Monitor, July 22, 2004.

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  62. See also, Robin Wright, ‘U.S. Faces a Crossroads on Iran Policy’, Washington Post, July 19, 2004.

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  63. Steven R. Weisman. Europe and U.S. Agree on Carrot-and-Stick Approach to Iran’. NYT.com, 12 March 2005, at http://www.nytimes.com/2005/03/12/politics/12iran.html?pagewanted=print&position=&oref=login

  64. Sonni Efron and Mark Mazzetti, ‘U. S. May Aid Iran Activists’. LA Times.com, 4 March 2005, at: http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-usiran4mar04,1,1 453738. print.story?coll=la-headlines-world.

  65. Roula Khalaf and Gareth Smyth, ‘Iran turns up heat on Europe ahead of talks’. FT.com, 19 April 2005, at http://news.ft.comlcms/s/1638ca94-b0fd-lld9-9bfc-00000e251 lc8.html.

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Terriff, T. ‘A Train Collision in the Making’? the Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction and the Transatlantic Alliance. J Transatl Stud 3, 105–122 (2005). https://doi.org/10.1080/14794010508656820

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