Skip to main content
Log in

Explaining support for populists among external voters: between home and host country

  • Special Issue Article
  • Published:
European Political Science Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Contributing to the emerging debate on non-resident citizens’ electoral preferences, this article addresses how migratory contexts affect their propensity to vote for populists. Employing two original datasets with information of external voting results from Latin America and Southern Europe, this study suggests that while external voters are on average slightly less likely to vote for populists than domestic voters, this varies meaningfully from country to country. It depends on the type of populism, populists’ incumbency, and the ideological preferences in the country of residence.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5

Similar content being viewed by others

Notes

  1. Ecuador has three extraterritorial districts ([1] Canada and USA; [2] Europe, Asia, and Oceania; and [3] Latin America, the Caribbean and Africa); while Italy just one, divided into four geographical regions ([1] Africa, Asia, Oceania, and Antarctica; [2] Central and North America; [3] Europe; and [4] South America).

References

  • Anderson, B. 1992. The new world disorder. New Left Review 193: 3–13.

    Google Scholar 

  • Battiston, S., and S. Luconi. 2020. The vote of Italians abroad: An anomaly in the new Italian political landscape? Contemporary Italian Politics 12(1): 62–76.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bergh, J., and T. Bjørklund. 2011. The revival of group voting: Explaining the voting preferences of immigrants in Norway. Political Studies 59(2): 308–327.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bilodeau, A., I. McAllister, and M. Kanji. 2010. Adaptation to democracy among immigrants in Australia. International Political Science Review 31(2): 141–165.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Boccagni, P., and J. Ramírez. 2013. Building democracy or reproducing ‘Ecuadoreanness’? A transnational exploration of Ecuadorean migrants ‘external voting.’ Journal of Latin American Studies 45(4): 721–750.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Burgess, K., and M.D. Tyburski. 2020. When parties go abroad: Explaining patterns of extraterritorial voting. Electoral Studies 66: 102–169.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Canovan, M. 1999. Trust the people! Populism and the two faces of democracy. Political Studies 47(1): 2–16.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Careja, R., and P. Emmenegger. 2012. Making democratic citizens: The effects of migration experience on political attitudes in central and eastern Europe. Comparative Political Studies 45(7): 875–902.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ciornei, I., and E. Østergaard-Nielsen. 2020. Transnational turnout. Determinants of emigrant voting in home-country elections. Political Geography 78: 102–145.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Collyer, M. 2014. A geography of extra-territorial citizenship: Explanations of external voting. Migration Studies 2(1): 55–72.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Coppedge, M., J. Gerring, C.H. Knutsen, S.I. Lindberg, J. Teorell, et al. 2021. V-Dem [country–year/country–date] dataset v11.1. Varieties of Democracy Project. https://doi.org/10.23696/vdemds21.

  • de la Torre, C. 2007. The resurgence of radical populism in Latin America. Constellations 14(3): 384–397.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • di Matteo, D., and I. Mariotti. 2021. Italian discontent and right-wing populism: Determinants, geographies, patterns. Regional Science Policy and Practice 13(2): 371–396.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ferejohn, J. 1986. Incumbent performance and electoral control. Public Choice 50(1): 5–25.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Finn, V. 2020. Migrant voting: Here, there, in both countries, or nowhere. Citizenship Studies 24(6): 730–750.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fliess, N. 2021. Campaigning across continents: How Latin American parties link up with migrant associations abroad. Comparative Migration Studies 9(1): 1–19.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Guth, J.L., and B.F. Nelsen. 2021. Party choice in Europe: Social cleavages and the rise of populist parties. Party Politics 27(3): 453–464.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hawkins, K. A., R. Aguilar, B.C. Silva, E.K. Jenne, B. Kocijan, and C. Rovira Kaltwasser. 2019. Measuring populist discourse: The global populism database. In EPSA annual conference in Belfast.

  • Himmelroos, S., and Å. von Schoultz. 2023. The mobilising effects of political media consumption among external voters. European Political Science 22(1). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41304-022-00406-5

  • Hutcheson, D.S., and J.T. Arrighi. 2015. “Keeping Pandora’s (Ballot) box half-shut”: A comparative inquiry into the institutional limits of external voting in EU member states. Democratization 22(5): 884–905.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ingram, J. 2017. Populism and cosmopolitanism. In The Oxford handbook of populism, ed. C. Rovira Kaltwasser, P.A. Taggart, P. Ochoa-Espejo, and P. Ostiguy. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Jakobson, M.-L., T. Saarts, and L. Kalev. 2020. Radical right across borders?: The case of EKRE’s Finnish branch. In Political parties abroad, ed. T. Kernalegenn and E. van Haute, 21–38. London: Routledge.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Jakobson, M.-L., S. Umpierrez de Reguero, and I.Ö. Yener-Roderburg. 2022. When migrants become ‘the people’: Unpacking homeland populism. Contemporary Politics. https://doi.org/10.1080/13569775.2022.2140791.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kernalegenn, T., and É. van Haute. 2020. Political parties abroad: A new arena for party politics. London: Routledge.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Kriesi, H., E. Grande, R. Lachat, M. Dolezal, S. Bornschier, and T. Frey. 2008. West European politics in the age of globalization. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Lafleur, J.M. 2013. Transnational politics and the state: The External voting rights of diasporas. London: Routledge.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Lafleur, J.M., and M. Sánchez-Domínguez. 2015. The political choices of emigrants voting in home-country elections: A socio-political analysis of the electoral behaviour of Bolivian external voters. Migration Studies 3(2): 155–181.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lipset, S.M., and S. Rokkan. 1967. Party system and voter alignments: Cross-national perspectives. London: The Free Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • López-Sala, A. 2019. ‘You’re not getting rid of usʼ. Performing acts of citizenship in times of emigration. Citizenship Studies 23(2): 97–114.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Massey, D.S., J. Durand, and N.J. Malone. 2002. Beyond smoke and mirrors: Mexican immigration in an era of economic integration. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.

    Google Scholar 

  • Meléndez, C., and C. Rovira Kaltwasser. 2021. Negative partisanship towards the populist radical right and democratic resilience in western Europe. Democratization 28: 1–21.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mouffe, C. 2018. For a left populism. London: Verso Books.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mudde, C. 2004. The populist zeitgeist. Government and Opposition 39(4): 541–563.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Norris, P. 2020. Measuring populism worldwide. Party Politics 26(6): 697–717.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Norris, P., and R. Inglehart. 2019. Cultural backlash: Trump, Brexit, and authoritarian populism. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Noury, A., and G. Roland. 2020. Identity politics and populism in Europe. Annual Review of Political Science 23: 421–439.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nowicka, M. 2018. “I don’t mean to sound racist but…” transforming racism in transnational Europe. Ethnic and Racial Studies 41(5): 824–841.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Østergaard-Nielsen, E., and I. Ciornei. 2019. Political parties and the transnational mobilisation of the emigrant vote. West European Politics 42(3): 618–644.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Østergaard-Nielsen, E., I. Ciornei, and J.-M. Lafleur. 2019. Why do parties support emigrant voting rights? European Political Science Review 11(3): 377–394.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Paarlberg. 2020. Anti-party skew and variation in diaspora outreach by Mexican parties. In Political parties abroad: A new arena for party politics, ed. T. Kernalegenn and É. van Haute, 218–237. London: Routledge.

    Google Scholar 

  • Peltoniemi, J. 2016. Distance as a cost of cross-border voting. Research on Finnish Society 9: 19–32.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pérez-Armendáriz, C., and D. Crow. 2010. Do migrants remit democracy? International migration, political beliefs, and behavior in Mexico. Comparative Political Studies 43(1): 119–148.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rashkova, E.R. 2020. The party abroad: A new modus operandi for political parties. Parliamentary Affairs 73(4): 839–855.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rhodes, S., and A. Harutyunyan. 2010. Extending citizenship to emigrants: Democratic contestation and a new global norm. International Political Science Review 31(4): 470–493.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Riker, W.H., and P.C. Ordeshook. 1968. A theory of the calculus of voting. American Political Science Review’ 62(1): 25–42.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rodrik, D. 2020. Why does globalization fuel populism? Economics, culture, and the rise of right-wing populism (No. w27526). National Bureau of Economic Research.

  • Rooduijn, M., W. van der Brug, and S.L. de Lange. 2016. Expressing or fuelling discontent? The relationship between populist voting and political discontent. Electoral Studies 43: 32–40.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rovira Kaltwasser, C. 2021. Bringing political psychology into the study of populism. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B 376: 1822.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rovira Kaltwasser, C., and S.M. van Hauwaert. 2020. The populist citizen: Empirical evidence from Europe and Latin America. European Political Science Review 12(1): 1–18.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ruth-Lovell, S. P., A. Lührmann, and S. Grahn. 2019. Democracy and populism: Testing a contentious relationship. V-Dem Institute Working Papers 2019:11.

  • Rzepnikowska, A. 2019. Racism and xenophobia experienced by polish migrants in the UK before and after Brexit vote. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies 45(1): 61–77.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schmid, S.D., L. Piccoli, and J.T. Arrighi. 2019. Non-universal suffrage: Measuring electoral inclusion in contemporary democracies. European Political Science 18(4): 695–713.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shehaj, A., A.J. Shin, and R. Inglehart. 2021. Immigration and right-wing populism: An origin story. Party Politics 27(2): 282–293.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Soare, S., and C. Tifus. 2023. Saved by the diaspora? The case of the alliance for the union of Romanians. European Political Science 22(1). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41304-022-00408-3

  • Spruyt, B., G. Keppens, and F. van Droogenbroeck. 2016. Who supports populism and what attracts people to it? Political Research Quarterly 69(2): 335–346.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Szulecki, K. 2020. Illiberal remittances. Is mass migration and the myth of the demise of the west fueling populism in CEE?. Aspen Review Central Europe 1.

  • Taggart, P. 2004. Populism and representative politics in contemporary Europe. Journal of Political Ideologies 9(3): 269–288.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Turcu, A., and R. Urbatsch. 2020a. Go means green: Diasporas’ affinity for ecological groups. Global Environmental Politics 20(1): 82–102.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Turcu, A., and R. Urbatsch. 2020b. Emigrants vs. rural politics: Cosmopolitan outlooks and electoral opposition to agrarian parties. Journal of Rural Studies 77: 138–147.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Turcu, A., and R. Urbatsch. 2020c. ‘European ruling parties’ electoral strategies and overseas enfranchisement policies. European Journal of Political Research 59(2): 269–289.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Turcu, A., and R. Urbatsch. 2021. Aversion to far-left parties among Europeans voting abroad. Comparative European Politics 19(1): 117–138.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Turcu, A., and R. Urbatsch. 2022. Is populism popular abroad? Evidence from diasporas around the globe. Party Politics. https://doi.org/10.1177/13540688221088470.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Umpierrez de Reguero, S., and R. Dandoy. 2020. Extending the incumbency presence abroad: The case of MPAIS in Ecuadorian elections. In Political parties abroad, ed. T. Kernalegenn and E. van Haute, 115–132. London: Routledge.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Umpierrez de Reguero, S.A., I.Ö. Yener-Roderburg, and V. Cartagena. 2021. Political regimes and external voting rights: A cross-national comparison. Frontiers in Political Science 3: 636734.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • van Hauwaert, S.M., and S. van Kessel. 2018. Beyond protest and discontent: A cross-national analysis of the effect of populist attitudes and issue positions on populist party support. European Journal of Political Research 57(1): 68–92.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vintila, D., C. Pamies, and M. Paradés, 2023. Electoral (non)alignment between resident and non-resident voters: Evidence from Spain. European Political Science 22(1). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41304-022-00411-8

  • Wellman, E.I. 2021. Emigrant inclusion in home-country elections: Theory and evidence from sub-Saharan Africa. American Political Science Review 115(1): 82–96.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • White, S., N. Nevitte, A. Blais, E. Gidengil, and P. Fournier. 2008. The political resocialization of immigrants: Resistance or lifelong learning? Political Research Quarterly 61(2): 268–281.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zanotti, L. 2021. How’s life after the collapse? Populism as a representation linkage and the emergence of a populist/anti-populist political divide in Italy (1994–2018). Frontiers in Political Science 3: 79.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

We extend our gratitude to Noelle Bridgen, Johanna Peltoniemi, Sorina Soare, Floris Vermeulen and Myra Waterbury and all the participants of the ECPR Joint Sessions “Diaspora Mobilisation and Homeland Politics”.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Sebastián Umpierrez de Reguero.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of interest

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

Additional information

Publisher's Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Supplementary Information

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

Supplementary file1 (DOCX 15 KB)

Rights and permissions

Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

de Reguero, S.U., Jakobson, ML. Explaining support for populists among external voters: between home and host country. Eur Polit Sci 22, 119–142 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41304-022-00403-8

Download citation

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/s41304-022-00403-8

Keywords

Navigation