Skip to main content
Log in

When candidates are more polarised than voters: constitutional revision in Japan

  • Symposium
  • Published:
European Political Science Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The study of mass-elite policy congruence has been limited by the lack of comprehensive data on the preferences and priorities of individual legislators. The University of Tokyo-Asahi Survey fills this lacuna through elite surveys whose response rates exceed ninety per cent. This article applies this data to comparing mass-elite policy preferences on constitutional revision, a core ideological dimension in post-war Japan. It shows that legislators generally follow the party line on policy position but veer closer to swing voters on policy prioritisation. This trend is stronger for electorally insecure legislators, who depend on independent voters to secure victory.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1

Source: UTAS candidate and electorate data, 2012–2014

Fig. 2

Source: 2012 and 2014 UTAS surveys

Similar content being viewed by others

Notes

  1. https://www.masaki.j.u-tokyo.ac.jp/utas/utasindex.html [website, codebook, and data are available only in Japanese]. Candidate data are available for 2003–2017 and is conducted before the election. Voter data are available for 2003–2014 and are conducted after the election. Both surveys are conducted by mail.

  2. The DPJ was the primary centre-left party between 1998–2017, but it split into two separate parties before the 2017 lower house election. A central dispute was over forming electoral coalitions with smaller left-wing parties that opposed constitutional revision. The largest opposition party as of 2019 is the Constitutional Democratic Party, which is comprised of more left-wing factions of the DPJ and largely opposes the amendment priorities of the LDP (McElwain 2018).

  3. Support versus opposition to amendment was asked on a five-point Likert scale, but for this paper is dichotomised into 1 = support; 0 = not support (oppose or neutral). On prioritisation, respondents were asked to select their top three policy priorities from a list of fifteen or sixteen options; these were also dichotomised into 1 = included in the top three; 0 = excluded.

  4. The greater number of candidates on the left-wing of the ideological spectrum reflects the failure of electoral coordination among progressive parties during this period, compared to the consolidation of conservatives under the LDP.

  5. Regression-based estimations (OLS) of the relationship between candidate type and amendment sentiment do not produce substantively different results and so were omitted to conserve space. These models include interaction terms between party affiliation and incumbency, controls for candidates’ gender and age, and fixed effects for year. Results are available from the author upon request.

References

  • Burden, B.C. 2015. Economic accountability and strategic calibration: The case of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party. Party Politics 21(3): 346–356.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Catalinac, A. 2016. Electoral reform and national security in Japan: From pork to foreign policy. New York: Cambridge University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Costello, R., J. Thomassen, and M. Rosema. 2012. European parliament elections and political representation: Policy congruence between voters and parties. West European Politics 35: 1226–1248.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Deschouwer, K., and S. Depauw. 2014. Representing the people: A survey among members of statewide and substate parliaments. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Estevez-Abe, M. 2008. Welfare and capitalism in postwar Japan. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Garry, J., M. Marsh, and R. Sinnott. 2005. ‘Second-order’ versus ‘issue-voting’ effects in eu referendums: Evidence from the irish nice treaty referendums. European Union Politics 6: 201–221.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hobolt, S.B. 2007. Taking cues on Europe? Voter competence and party endorsements in referendums on European integration. European Journal of Political Research 46: 151–182.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krauss, E.S., and R.J. Pekkanen. 2011. The rise and fall of Japan's LDP: Political party organizations as historical institutions. Ithaca: NY, Cornell University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • LeDuc, L. 2003. The politics of direct democracy: Referendums in global perspective. Toronto: University of Toronto Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • McElwain, K.M. 2008. Manipulating electoral rules to manufacture single party dominance. American Journal of Political Science 52: 32–47.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McElwain, K.M. 2018. Constitutional Revision in the 2017 Election. In Japan decides 2017: The Japanese general election, ed. R.J. Pekkanen, S.R. Reed, E. Scheiner, and D. Smith, 297–312. London: Palgrave Macmillan.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • McElwain, K. M. & Winkler, C. G. 2015. What's unique about Japan's constitution? A comparative and historical analysis. Journal of Japanese Studies, 41.

  • Müller, W.C., M. Jenny, and A. Ecker. 2012. The elites-masses gap in European integration. In The Europe of elites: A study into the Europeanness of Europe's political and economic elites, ed. H. Best, G. Lengyel, and L. Verzichelli. New York: Oxford University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pempel, T.J. (ed.). 1990. Uncommon democracies: The one-party dominant regimes. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ramseyer, J.M., and F.M. Rosenbluth. 1993. Japan's political marketplace. Mass: Harvard University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rohrschneider, R., and S. Stephen. 2012. Ideological congruence. In The strain of representation: How parties represent diverse voters in Western and Eastern Europe, ed. R. Rohrschneider and S. Whitefield. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Sakaiya, S. 2017. Kenpō to yoron: Sengo nihonjin wa kenpō to dō mukiatte kitanoka. Chikuma Shobou: Tokyo.

    Google Scholar 

  • Samuels, R.J. 2007. Securing Japan: Tokyo's grand strategy and the future of East Asia. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Scheiner, E. 2006. Democracy without competition in Japan: Opposition failure in a one-party dominant state. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Shim, J., and S. Gherghina. 2020. Measuring the mass-elite preference congruence: Findings from a meta-analysis and introduction to the symposium. European Political Science. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41304-020-00273-y.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Silagadze, N., and S. Gherghina. 2018. When who and how matter: Explaining the success of referendums in Europe. Comparative European Politics 16: 905–922.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smith, D.M. 2018. Dynasties and democracy: The inherited incumbency advantage in Japan. Stanford: Stanford University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Tanaka, A. 2012. Japan’s independent voters, yesterday and today. Nippon.com. (Available at: https://www.nippon.com/en/in-depth/a01104/japan%e2%80%99s-independent-voters-yesterday-and-today.html)

  • Taniguchi, M., and Asahi Shimbun 2019. The University of Tokyo-Asahi Survey. (Available at: https://www.masaki.j.u-tokyo.ac.jp/utas/utasindex.html)

  • Winkler, C. G. 2011. The quest for Japan's new constitution: An analysis of visions and constitutional reform proposals (1980–2009). Routledge.

  • Winkler, C.G. 2017. Right on? The LDP’s drift to the right and the persistence of particularism. Social Science Japan Journal 20: 203–224.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Woodall, B. 1996. Japan under construction: Corruption, politics, and public works. Berkeley: University of California Press.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Kenneth Mori McElwain.

Additional information

Publisher's Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

McElwain, K.M. When candidates are more polarised than voters: constitutional revision in Japan. Eur Polit Sci 19, 528–539 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41304-020-00270-1

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/s41304-020-00270-1

Keywords

Navigation