Abstract
The political party rally was reinvented by Jeremy Corbyn. Despite retaining the rally as an election campaign strategy, Labour calamitously lost the 2019 general election. Did something go wrong with this strategy? This paper analyses the results of a survey of participants in a Corbyn rally in Camborne, Cornwall in 2017, close to two marginal constituencies. It finds that very few participants were not already dedicated Labour voters. The paper warns of the danger of advertising these rallies only through closed mobilisation channels. For improved efficacy, rallies in marginal constituencies might more widely advertise using open channels to a broader range of people.
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Notes
It should be noted that the timing of this survey meant that new members did not have the opportunity to be active in the election campaign—they joined after the 2015 election and the study was published before the 2017 election.
DV = 1 for face-to-face, 0 for mail back. Chi-square tests of model coefficients = 1.24 sig. 999, Nagelkerke R Square = 0.005, none of the variables are significant. The lowest p-value is 0.4.
Cronbach’s alpha for this variable is reasonable at 0.59. Due to the low number of items, I also ran a Spearman Brown reliability analysis, which has a similar score of 0.58.
Authoritarianism is measured by the items ‘young people do not have enough respect for traditional British values’, ‘for some crimes the death penalty is the most appropriate sentence’, ‘schools should teach children to obey authority’, ‘censorship of films and magazines is necessary to uphold moral standards’ and ‘people who break the law should be given stiffer sentences’. Each is measured on a five point agree/disagree Likert scale and summed to make the authoritarian scale. Cronbach’s reliability coefficient is 0.72. Left-libertarianism is measured by the following items summed in the same way: ‘government should redistribute income’, ‘big business takes advantage of ordinary people’, ‘ordinary working people do not get their fair share of the nation’s wealth’, ‘there is one law for the rich and one law for the poor’ and ‘management will always try to get the better of employees’. Cronbach’s alpha is 0.65. Factor analysis and PCA failed to find a sensible solution. Instead, I decided to retain them as two scale variables. Authority scale correlates modestly and positively (0.29) with left–right self-placement (where 0 = most left-wing and 10 = most right-wing). Left- libertarian score correlates modestly and negatively (− 0.27) with left–right self-placement.
Cronbach’s alpha 0.70.
One way ANOVA F = 5.96, significant at the 0.001 level.
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Acknowledgements
The author would like to thank reviewers of this paper for helping me to shape it up form publication. Thanks are also due to the research volunteers, particularly Philip Passmore, Chloe Hutton, Craig Hedges and Anthony Matthews and Falmouth and Truro Labour Party volunteers. The methodology is based on the Caught in the Act of Protest Project. The UK part of this project was supported by the ESRC RES-062-23-1565. The project was funded by the College of Social Sciences and International Studies, University of Exeter. I am exceedingly grateful for the financial support received.
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Appendix: Variable measurement
Appendix: Variable measurement
Variable type and name | Survey question or computation | Coding |
|---|---|---|
Socio-demographics | ||
Age | In what year were you born? | 2017-year born |
Babyboomer | Computed: born 1946–1964 | 0 = no 1 = yes |
Youth | Computed: born1992–2001 | 0 = no 1 = yes |
Gender | Are you …? | 1 = male 2 = female 3 = prefer not to say |
Education | What is your highest level of education? | 0 = none, did not complete primary education 1 = primary 2 = GCSEs or equivalent 3 = A Levels or equivalent 4 = Foundational degree/HNC 5 = Degree: BA/BSc 6 = Masters of other PG qualification 7 = PhD |
Employment | What is your employment situation? Tick as many as apply I work fulltime I work part-time I am freelance/self-employed (without staff) I am self-employed (with staff) I study fulltime I am unemployed/between jobs I am retired I am a housewife/househusband Other | 1 = ticked 0 = not mentioned |
Occupation | What is your occupation, or what was your last occupation | String |
Employees | In your main job do / did you have responsibility for supervising the work of other (or your own) employees | 0 = no 1 = yes for 1–9 persons 2 = yes for 10 persons or more |
Oesch | Social class calculation, derived from occupation and employees | 1 = large employers 2 = technical professions 3 = (associate) managers 4 = socio-cultural professions 5 = petit bourgeoisie 6 = production workers 7 = office clerks 8 = service workers |
Subjective social class | People sometimes describe themselves as belonging to the working class, the middle class, or the upper or lower class. Would you describe yourself as belonging to the …? | 1 = upper class 2 = upper middle class 3 = lower middle class 4 = working class 5 = lower class 6 = none |
Support for the leadership | ||
JC for PM | How likely or unlikely do you think it is that Jeremy Corbyn will ever become prime minister? | 1 = not at all 2 = not very 3 = somewhat likely 4 = he will be our next PM 5 = I do not know (re-coded as missing) |
Approval of JC | To what extent do you approve or disapprove of Jeremy Corbyn as leader for the Labour Party? | 1 = strongly disapprove 2 = disapprove 3 = neither approve nor disapprove 4 = approve 5 = strongly approve 6 = I do not know (re-coded as missing) |
Leadership performance | Do you think that Jeremy Corbyn is doing well or badly as leader of the Labour Party? | 1 = very badly 2 = badly 3 = not badly or well 4 = well 5 = very well 6 = I do not know (re-coded as missing) |
Support for the leadership | An aggregated scale of JC for PM, Approval of JC and Leadership performance | |
Support for the manifesto | ||
Support for policy proposals | To what extent do you support or oppose the following policy proposals? (see p. 9 for a list of the policy proposals) | 1 = strongly oppose 2 = oppose 3 = neither oppose or support 4 = support 5 = strongly support 6 = I do not know (re-coded as missing) |
Support for the manifesto | An aggregated scale of support for policy proposals | |
Activity in the party | ||
Have you | Have you, in the past 12 months … Displayed a Labour Party election poster Donated money to Labour Party funds Delivered Labour Party or candidate leaflets Attended a Labour Party meeting Helped at a Labour Party function Participated in phone or door-to-door canvassing on behalf of the Labour Party Liked the Labour party or shared its posts on social media Managed or administered a social media page or network in support of the Labour Party | 1 = yes 0 = n0 |
Intensity of activism | See pp. 10–11 for explanation | None = 0 Low = 1 Medium = 2 High = 3 |
Membership | ||
Type of member | Are you a member, supporter, or affiliate of the Labour Party? | 0 = I am not a member, affiliate or supporter 1 = I am a member of the Labour party 2 = I am a registered supporter of the Labour party 2 = I am an affiliated supporter (through a trade union or socialist society) |
Re-joiner | If you are a member, supporter or affiliate, in which year did you first join the Labour Party? If your membership, supporter or affiliate status has ceased for any period of time, please indicate the approximate years when it stopped and restarted | 0 = not a member of the Labour Party 1 = joined before 2015 and remains a member 2 = re-joined in 2015 after a lapse in membership (re-joiner) 3 = joined in or after 2015 |
Ideology | ||
Left-libertarian | To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements? Government should redistribute income from the better off to those who are less well off Big business takes advantage of ordinary people Ordinary working people do not get their fair share of the nation’s wealth There is one law for the rich and one for the poor Management will always try to get the better of employees if it gets the chance | 1 = strongly disagree 2 = disagree 3 = neither 4 = agree 5 = strongly agree The variable is an aggregated index |
Authoritarian | Young people do not have enough respect for traditional British values For some crimes, the death penalty is the most appropriate sentence Schools should teach children to obey authority Censorship of films and magazines is necessary to uphold moral standards People who break the law should be given tougher sentences | 1 = strongly disagree 2 = disagree 3 = neither 4 = agree 5 = strongly agree The variable is an aggregated index |
Left–right self-placement | In politics people sometimes talk of “left” and “right”. Where would you place yourself on this scale, where 0 means left and 10 means right? | 0–10 scale 99 = don’t know (re-coded as missing) |
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Saunders, C. Preaching to the converted? Who attended the Camborne, Cornwall Corbyn rally in August 2017?. Br Polit 16, 375–397 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41293-020-00143-7
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/s41293-020-00143-7