Abstract
In this paper, we discuss the challenges and the opportunities faced by developing countries that want to join the so-called Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR). We first point out that the current discourse on 4IR is often based on poor understanding of the true nature of the phenomenon. Emphasising that many of the so-called 4IR technologies have been there and evolving rapidly in the last half a century, we argue that what defines 4IR is the fusion of these technologies. Given this, we argue, rather than trying to master particular 4IR technologies, developing countries should first focus on acquiring what we call the foundational capabilities, i.e. the capabilities to learn new technical and organisational solutions and apply them in creative and flexible ways. Using this perspective, we then discuss in great detail how different 4IR technologies are re-shaping each industry and creating new industries through technological fusion, while discussing how these changes are affecting the opportunities and challenges faced by developing countries for industrial development. We conclude the paper by discussing the implications of our findings for industrial policy in developing countries.
Résumé
Dans cet article, nous discutons des défis et des opportunités auxquels sont confrontés les pays en développement qui souhaitent rejoindre la soi-disant quatrième révolution industrielle (4RI). Nous commençons par souligner que, bien souvent, le discours actuel sur la 4RI est fondé sur une mauvaise compréhension de la vraie nature du phénomène. Tout en mettant l’accent sur le fait que de nombreuses technologies soi-disant issues de la 4RI existent depuis la seconde moitié du siècle dernier et ont évolué rapidement, nous soutenons que ce qui définit la 4RI est la fusion de ces technologies. Compte tenu de cela, nous soutenons que, plutôt que d'essayer de maîtriser des technologies particulières de la 4RI, les pays en développement devraient d'abord se concentrer sur l'acquisition de ce que nous appelons les capacités fondamentales, c'est-à-dire les capacités d'apprendre de nouvelles solutions techniques et organisationnelles et de les appliquer de manière créative et flexible. Nous adoptons cette perspective et discutons ensuite en détail de la manière dont les différentes technologies de la 4RI remodèlent chaque industrie et créent de nouvelles industries grâce à la fusion technologique, tout en discutant de la façon dont ces changements affectent les opportunités et les défis auxquels sont confrontés les pays en développement en matière de développement industriel. Pour conclure l’article, nous discutons de l’implication de nos résultats pour la politique industrielle des pays en développement.
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Notes
Exposure to competition does not require trade liberalization. Several successful development experiences (e.g. East Asian countries) have shown that competitive pressure on firms can be generated by a combination of export-push and a high level of domestic competition (see Chang 1994, ch. 3 on this point).
The first industrial revolution being associated with the steam engine, and the mechanization of the textile industry, the ironmaking industry, and various ironworking industries (early nineteenth century); the second being driven by electrification, the internal-combustion engine, and mass production technologies (late-19th, early-twentieth century); and the third by the development of electronics, especially ICTs (late twentieth century).
We acknowledge the broad impacts that technologies have on society, institutions, and even culture. This raises question with the very definition of technology itself—should it be limited to the tools used by humans or should it be stretched to include organizational practices, institutions, and broader forms of organization of society? Discussing all these aspects, however, would go well beyond the scope of this paper. Thus, we limit ourselves to discuss the impacts of technologies on production at the firm and the industry levels.
Kasmire et al. (2012) argue that this was the case with Charles Babbage’s Analytical Engine and Gregor Mendel’s theory of trait inheritance. Both were rediscovered over a century after their initial developments, when incremental developments in relevant areas caught up and provided a context to support them.
Only in the US, it went from 3 exabytes in 1986 to 300 exabytes in 2011, to more than 2000 exabytes in 2016. Besides the volume, the diversity of data has also grown. The reat part of the recently available data is in the form of clicks, images, text, videos, and signs of many types (MGI 2016).
We use the term ‘technological fusion’ and not ‘technological convergence’, as the latter has been used to refer to a number of different things, making it very imprecise and confusing. It has been used by authors in the history of technology to refer to a process where several industries start using similar technologies (e.g. metal cutting, welding, measurements and control instruments, computer aided design and manufacture, software applications, etc.) (Rosenberg 1963; Pavitt 2003). It has also been used to refer to ‘digital convergence’, i.e. the trend that different functionalities, such as telecommunications, broadcasting, and computing are merging in a single ‘platform’—a computer, or a smartphone (Collins 1998). A third meaning is used by authors that use patent data to identify the ‘merging and overlapping of technologies’ involved in innovations (see Geum et al. 2012). This ‘merging and overlapping’ of technologies is what we mean by ‘technological fusion’, so we use it, instead of the nebulous concept of ‘technological convergence’.
Biorefinery refers to the production of energy and materials from biomass.
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Andreoni, A., Chang, HJ. & Labrunie, M. Natura Non Facit Saltus: Challenges and Opportunities for Digital Industrialisation Across Developing Countries. Eur J Dev Res 33, 330–370 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41287-020-00355-z
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/s41287-020-00355-z