The concept of near-repeat patterns illustrates how crimes are clustered in space and time, with a crime event often shortly followed by another crime nearby. This study aims first to describe the frequency in shootings; second, to analyse the patterns of near-repeat shootings; and third, to validate a near-repeat calculator in the three largest cities in Sweden. Data were geocoded from three registries on shootings administered by the police departments in Stockholm, Gothenburg and Malmö from 2011 to 2015, and were analysed using a free near-repeat calculator. There were 948 shootings, 378 of which involved at least one injury or death (40%). The relative risk of firearm-perpetrated homicides was almost 2.5 times higher in Malmö compared to Stockholm, but almost half of the shootings occurred in Stockholm. Near-repeat patterns were found with a significantly increased risk of a new shooting in all three cities, but were weaker in Gothenburg.
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The serial shooter that operated in Malmö in 2003 to 2010 was apprehended before the observation period of this study and has not contributed with any shootings.
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This research was supported by an MSB – Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency grant to the Institute for Future Studies (2016-486/7045).
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Sturup, J., Rostami, A., Gerell, M. et al. Near-repeat shootings in contemporary Sweden 2011 to 2015. Secur J 31, 73–92 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41284-017-0089-y