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Forecasting container port volume: implications for dredging

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Maritime Economics & Logistics Aims and scope

Abstract

This paper aims to provide a practical method for forecasting potential container cargo volume that can be induced by a port development project on a container transport network by combining port choice and an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. The entrance channel improvement plan for Incheon New Port in South Korea is used as a case study. Based on the stated preference data collected from domestic shippers, a discrete choice analysis is performed to estimate the future market share of three major ports in South Korea: Busan, Gwangyang, and Incheon. The estimated market share of Incheon New Port is used to forecast its future container volume derived by the ARIMA model and the potential port development scenarios.

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Acknowledgements

The authors wish to thank Mr. Dong-hoon Son for his assistance in the ARIMA model estimation and the anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments.

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Correspondence to Hyunwoo Lim.

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All of the three authors should be considered as co-first authors since the amount of efforts made on this research is indistinguishable from one another.

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Lee, SY., Lim, H. & Kim, HJ. Forecasting container port volume: implications for dredging. Marit Econ Logist 19, 296–314 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41278-016-0054-4

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