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The methodology used was adapted from The World Café Method, developed by Juanita Brown. For its guidelines, consult http://www.theworldcafe.com/key-concepts-resources/world-cafe-method/.
The Latino Public Opinion Forum is a program launched by the Jack Gordon Institute for Public Policy at Florida International University with the objective of gauging the opinions of Latinos in the state of Florida about a range of public policy issues. With the exception of the Colombian group on October 2, all other groups included only US citizens. Cafe members were identified and invited by relying on recommendations from community leaders. We then followed demographic parameters to achieve a gender and age balance.
FIU’s Latino Public Opinion Forum launched the New Latino Voice, a mobile advertising platform donated by Adsmóvil to conduct daily polls beginning on April 11 and ending on November 8, 2016. A description of the methodology can be found at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j36TXOrP0OU. Relying on the same platform, exit polls with early voters and on November 8 were also conducted. The exit polls included all voters, not only Latinos.
See, for example, Miami’s Venezuelans Are Starting to Drive U.S. Policy Like Their Cuban Neighbors, https://www.buzzfeed.com/davidnoriega/how-venezuelans-in-the-us-became-a-potent-politicalforce?utm_term=.aqk0l9Xvv#.mmPnYRWgg.
See Pew Research Center’s estimate at http://www.people-press.org/2015/04/07/2014-party-identification-detailed-tables-hispanic/.
Trump Learns to Play Miami’s Ethnic Politics, http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/election/donald-trump/article102378397.html#storylink=cpy.
A Peronist on the Potomac: Donald Trump through Latin American Eyes, http://www.economist.com/news/americas/21717105-donald-trump-through-latin-american-eyes-peronist-potomac.
Russian hackers revealed internal campaign documents, making Taddeo extremely vulnerable in the process. See Eric Lipton and Scott Shane, Democratic House Candidates Were Also Targets of Russian Hacking, https://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/13/us/politics/house-democrats-hacking-dccc.html. In the November elections, Republican incumbent Carlos Curbelo successfully defeated Democrat Joe Garcia.
FIU Cuba Poll, https://cri.fiu.edu/research/cuba-poll/.
Exit polls surveyed a small sample of Cuban Americans. Data on other nationalities is not available. Our impressions of the identification of young Cuban Americans with Bernie Sanders are based on the millennial cafe and interviews. See Pew Research’s report on how Cubans voted based on the National Exit Poll, http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/15/unlike-other-latinos-about-half-of-cuban-voters-in-florida-backed-trump/. See also the Cuba Poll, https://cri.fiu.edu/research/cuba-poll/2016-cuba-poll.pdf.
This article does not examine the results of Senate, House, or other levels of elections. It is noteworthy, however, that Senator Rubio lost in Miami-Dade Country by a significant 10-point margin. At the same time, Cuban American incumbent Congress members won reelection.
A poll conducted by Bendixen and Amandi for Univision in May 2016 found that 41% would vote for Trump versus 29% for Hillary Clinton. FIU’s poll, like others, found that during the summer months and before the conventions, support for Trump among Cuban Americans dropped, http://www.univision.com/noticias/elecciones-2016/los-cubanos-de-miami-los-hispanos-que-si-quieren-a-trump.
The New Latino Voice polled Latinos nationally every day and provided a weekly trend line. Beginning in the month of July, the NLV added a Florida sample and a Miami-Dade County sample. As noted previously, two exit polls—one with all early voters and another with all voters on election day—were also conducted.
New Latino Voice, 7 November 2016 (FIU and Adsmóvil).
Andrés Oppenheimer, Trump puede ganar Florida con el voto cubano, http://www.elnuevoherald.com/opinion-es/opin-col-blogs/andres-oppenheimer-es/article112054622.html.
National Election Pool Exit Poll, http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/florida/president.
Latino Decisions 2016 Latino Election Analysis, http://www.latinodecisions.com/files/5214/8106/0204/PostElection2016-Barreto-CAP.pdf, conducted an election-eve poll, which is often confused with election-day exit polls. The principal exit poll was conducted by Edison Research for a pool of major news outlets including the New York Times, Washington Post, ABC News, CBS News, and AP, among others. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/11/10/the-13-most-amazing-things-in-the-2016-exit-poll/?utm_term=.109f8ee1aff7. This poll identified Cuban Americans but not other Latinos.
Ali Valenzuela and Tyler Reny reached a similar conclusion. See Study: Trump Fared Worse than Romney in Florida Hispanic Vote, http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/presidential-campaign/310760-study-finds-trump-faired-worse-than-romney-with.
See, for example, the results in precincts 601 and 602, generally considered the most Cuban American in Coral Gables.
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Gamarra, E.A. Café conversations in Miami. Lat Stud 16, 113–128 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41276-017-0103-x
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/s41276-017-0103-x