The purpose of this article was to identify and compare the COVID-19 case definitions of all Canadian provinces and territories, to illustrate that COVID-19 case data routinely published and disseminated to the general public is not representative of the respective target populations, and to explain why the reporting and comparing case counts without appropriate denominators may misguide public health policy. We believe it is important to appraise and understand variations in governmental and news outlet reporting of COVID-19 to the public because reporting may be unintentionally biased which may result in neglect of key public health guidelines.
Relevance of using appropriate denominators
Our assessment of COVID-19 case reporting (as of 19 August 2021) revealed that 11 of 13 provincial and territorial websites and 8 of 15 news outlets reported COVID-19 case counts only as absolute numbers. Two exceptions, Nova Scotia [36] and Ontario [35], reported case counts in reference to denominators, COVID-19 cases per 100,000 population. At the penultimate extraction point, Newfoundland [34] had reported case statistics with denominators, but by the final extraction point, no longer did so. The reporting of only absolute COVID-19 case counts prevents accurate comparison of the disease spread across geographic regions. Fixed denominators such as population size, however, have only limited utility when assessing the spread of disease over time, as eligibility criteria for testing and testing capacities vary widely, even within one region. Positivity rate, the proportion of all tests performed that are actually positive (in a given period of time) [55], is another measure used in public reporting. Low positivity rates indicate low viral prevalence and adequate surveillance capacity (amongst the tested); high positivity rates reflect high viral prevalence or testing strategies focused primarily on symptomatic individuals, or both. Despite its prevalence in news reporting, positivity rates may be biased due to differences in test-seeking or care-seeking behaviour of individuals [1], asymptomatic cases of COVID-19 [56], changes in testing capacities, and imperfect test sensitivity [57]. Obtaining accurate estimates of the burden of the disease is crucial to informing the public health response [2]. Despite this fact, news outlets and governmental bodies remain inclined to compare the disease prevalence and incidence across cities, regions, and countries (Fig. 3). For example, news outlets repeatedly called Montreal the “epicentre of the pandemic” [58, 59] in Canada, as did public health officials [60, 61] based on its high absolute number of COVID-19 cases. Even Prime Minister Justin Trudeau [62] expressed concern for Montreal residents (Table 3). None pointed out that Laval, a city north of Montreal and the third largest city in Quebec following Montreal and Quebec City, experienced similar proportions of positive COVID-19 cases and death rates of COVID-19 as Montreal (Fig. 4).
Symptom-based testing predominates
We found that most provincial and territorial websites recommended COVID-19 testing primarily to individuals experiencing symptoms of COVID-19. And some provinces (British Columbia and Ontario) explicitly discouraged testing of individuals without symptoms: “if you don’t have any symptoms, testing is not recommended even if you are a contact” [43] and “[Public Health Ontario] does not currently recommend routine testing of asymptomatic persons for COVID-19.” [63]. By 15 September 2020, only the websites of Alberta [37], Saskatchewan [39], and Manitoba [64] explicitly noted availability of COVID-19 testing to asymptomatic individuals or certain priority groups. By 15 January 2021, however, Alberta and Manitoba had paused their asymptomatic testing. By 19 August 2021, more provinces (including Quebec, Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick) allowed for asymptomatic testing.
Despite the content of postings for the public on provincial and territorial websites, in practice, COVID-19 testing may be more widely available. For instance, Public Health Ontario recommended that healthcare providers “should continue to use their discretion to make decisions on which individuals to test [for COVID-19]” [63]. Additionally, although not always stated explicitly on the websites, some provinces may have expanded COVID-19 testing for priority groups such as healthcare workers, first responders, teachers, immunocompromised individuals, patients who had been admitted to acute care hospitals, amongst others. COVID-19 case statistics that rely on symptomatic testing may grossly underestimate the true extent of spread of the epidemic. Thus, these findings highlight the need for large-scale representative testing to enable accurate estimation of the epidemic’s scale and dynamics.
Despite the importance of representative testing, it has taken nearly 1.5 years after the initial lockdowns in Canada for health authorities to apply this sampling approach in specific contexts. On 6 July 2021, Statistics Canada and the COVID-19 Immunity Task Force released preprint data on COVID-19 seroprevalence of > 10,000 Canadians tested between November 2020 and April 2021 [65]. Researchers found that between those dates, 2.6% of Canadians had COVID-19 antibodies, another 1% had the antibodies due to vaccinations. (COVID-19 vaccines were not widely available during the survey period) [65].
Lack of data on racial and ethnic minorities
Our analysis of COVID-19 reporting by governmental websites also uncovered absence of any reporting on race or ethnicity. After nearly two years since the initial lockdowns in Canada, no province or territory reported any COVID-19 data on race or ethnicity. This failure prevents Canadian public health authorities from understanding how COVID-19 impacts these groups. This is particularly problematic given growing evidence that COVID-19 disproportionately affects racial and ethnic minorities. According to the COVID Racial Data Tracker Project, a collaboration between The Atlantic and Boston University aimed at gathering race and ethnicity data on COVID-19 in the USA, “nationwide, Black people are dying at 1.5 times the rate of White people” [66]. Other racial and ethnic minority groups are also adversely affected; Indigenous and Latinos experience mortality rates of 138 and 121 deaths per 100,000 respectively compared to 98 per 100,000 for White Americans (as of 26 January 2021) [66].
These disparities may be attributed to inequities in the social determinants of health such as access to healthcare, socioeconomic conditions (including poverty and the stress that accompanies it), housing, and occupation [67]. An additional explanation that must not be ignored is systemic racism, a term used to convey “racism [that] is embedded in the policies [and practices] of public and private institutions” [68]. Systemic racism can exist even if no one in the institution is racist, but historically architects of the system and structure of the institution built these in a way that favours certain groups over others. Racial and ethnic minorities are more likely to be low-income, frontline workers (healthcare workers, caretakers, delivery drivers, amongst others), and live in housing and multi-generational homes [69, 70] under “conditions ripe for [the] spread of coronavirus” [71].
A Statistics Canada report found that neighbourhoods in Quebec, Ontario, and British Columbia with the highest proportions of visible minority residents (> 25%) had an age-standardized COVID-19 mortality rate per 100,000 population at least two times that of neighbourhoods with less than 1% visible minority residents [72]. These results align with those reported earlier by CBC News in Montreal [69] and Toronto [70]. The data gaps in race and ethnicity led to numerous calls to collect COVID-19 data on race and ethnicity from committees and community groups in Montreal [73, 74], Toronto [75], Vancouver [76], and Nova Scotia [77]. These data would allow us to better understand changes in the COVID-19 pandemic and identify the most vulnerable at-risk groups.