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Public opinion on Twitter? How vote choice and arguments on Twitter comply with patterns in survey data, evidence from the 2016 Ukraine referendum in the Netherlands

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Abstract

Extensive research has been done on how social media have changed democratic society, politics, and public opinion. Social media are often regarded as a mirror of the public that, during political events, provides journalists and academics with a clear image of what position the public has on political issues and which sub-issues it uses to back it up. Yet, there is strong empirical evidence that active Twitter users differ in terms of background characteristics from the electorate, and that the most influential users possess specific traits. However, this does not necessarily mean that the opinions expressed on Twitter cannot reflect public opinion. This study aims to compare sub-issues used on Twitter to polled public opinion data in the context of the 2016 so-called Ukraine referendum in the Netherlands. Our main findings indicate that there is a remarkable resemblance between the two domains in terms of sub-issues used and prominence of these sub-issues. Yet, this is mostly the case when not taking duplicates or retweets into account. Overall, the Twitter debate showed to be less nuanced than the polled public opinion data, as fewer sub-issues appeared.

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Notes

  1. This figure corresponds closely with recent statistics from Newman et al. (2019) on political social media use in the Netherlands (33%). These percentages are likely to be an overrepresentation of the true percentage as Internet users are most probably overrepresented in these surveys.

  2. To check whether this affected our results, we ran our analysis on a weighted dataset to correct for the overrepresentation of this sub-group. The results remained intact and highly compatible.

  3. The lowest one of .5 relates to the ‘strategic vote’ sub-issue, which was categorized only twice. In both cases, a different duo of coders categorized it as such, which indicates that this was not a case of disagreement, but of a missed identification. For this reason and because it is not one of the overlapping themes (this category will not be used in most of the analyses), we think that the low inter-coder reliability is not problematic.

  4. The excluded categories are “sub-issues related to the Ukrainian civil war,” and “sub-issue related to turnout of the referendum.”

  5. All scripts are available at [URL MASKED FOR BLIND PEER REVIEW].

  6. In the survey we asked voters whether they voted in favor- or against the treaty. But we also asked people why they did not vote or vote blanc, which naturally means the range of topics is much broader in the survey than the Twitter data. An overview of the relevance of all topics In the survey- compared to the Twitter data can be viewed in Figure B1 of appendix B in Electronic supplementary material.

  7. One may object to our analysis, given that our survey was slightly biased with regard to age and outcome. As an additional robustness check, we therefore carried weighing for these variables. If we weigh for age (effectively correcting for the overrepresentation of respondents between 50 and 70 in our sample), we find a very similar pattern as without (see Appendix C Figure C1 in Electronic supplementary material), leading to very few changes. We see that correcting for the age distribution does not change our conclusion. Similarly, correcting for the vote distribution does not change the general picture either (see Appendix C Figure C2 in Electronic supplementary material). While the absolute numbers of mentioned sub-issues change slightly, the relative importance does not. In any scenario, the topics Corruption, EU, and Finance form the top 3 in the survey data and are virtually indistinguishable.

  8. There are some more interesting observations to be made. For instance, while someone who followed the political developments closely may have expected that the role of former heroes of the Maidan revolution (as part of the Ukrainian people sub-issue), or the geopolitical stakes of Russia (as part of the Russia sub-issue) may have dominated the discourse, this does not seem to be the case.

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Correspondence to Marijn van Klingeren.

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van Klingeren, M., Trilling, D. & Möller, J. Public opinion on Twitter? How vote choice and arguments on Twitter comply with patterns in survey data, evidence from the 2016 Ukraine referendum in the Netherlands. Acta Polit 56, 436–455 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41269-020-00160-w

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