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Table 3 Logistic multilevel regression predicting voting against the incumbent party or coalition if election tomorrow

From: Blame and contention: how perceptions of the government’s role in the economic crisis shape patterns of political action

  (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)
Age   −0.01*** (0.00) −0.01*** (0.00) −0.01*** (0.00) −0.01*** (0.00) −0.01*** (0.00) −0.01*** (0.00)
Male   0.11** (0.04) 0.16*** (0.04) 0.11** (0.04) 0.15*** (0.04) 0.15*** (0.04) 0.15*** (0.04)
Education (low)   −0.03 (0.05) −0.04 (0.05) −0.02 (0.05) − 0.03 (0.05) − 0.03 (0.05) − 0.03 (0.05)
Manual occupation   0.03 (0.04) 0.02 (0.05) 0.02 (0.05) 0.01 (0.05) 0.01 (0.05) 0.01 (0.05)
Unemployed   0.03 (0.06) 0.03 (0.06) 0.02 (0.06) 0.02 (0.06) 0.02 (0.06) 0.02 (0.06)
Political interest   − 0.19*** (0.05) − 0.17*** (0.05) − 0.20*** (0.05) − 0.19*** (0.05) − 0.18*** (0.05) − 0.18*** (0.05)
Internal political efficacy   − 0.05 (0.05) − 0.01 (0.06) − 0.10 (0.05) − 0.04 (0.06) − 0.05 (0.06) − 0.05 (0.06)
External political efficacy   0.50*** (0.05) 0.40*** (0.05) 0.42*** (0.05) 0.34*** (0.05) 0.33*** (0.05) 0.34*** (0.05)
Party attachment   − 0.48*** (0.02) − 0.47*** (0.02) − 0.48*** (0.02) − 0.47*** (0.02) − 0.47*** (0.02) − 0.47*** (0.02)
Left–right values   − 0.10*** (0.01) − 0.08*** (0.01) − 0.10*** (0.01) − 0.09*** (0.01) − 0.09*** (0.01) − 0.09*** (0.01)
Libertarian–authoritarian values   − 0.01 (0.01) − 0.01 (0.01) − 0.01 (0.01) − 0.01 (0.01) − 0.01 (0.01) − 0.01 (0.01)
Organisational memberships   0.03** (0.01) 0.04*** (0.01) 0.03*** (0.01) 0.05*** (0.01) 0.05*** (0.01) 0.05*** (0.01)
Unemployment rate   0.02 (0.01) 0.01 (0.01) 0.01 (0.01) 0.00 (0.01) 0.00 (0.01) 0.00 (0.01)
GDP growth   0.58*** (0.16) 0.55*** (0.15) 0.54*** (0.14) 0.52*** (0.15) 0.52*** (0.15) 0.52*** (0.15)
Social spending   0.24*** (0.06) 0.23*** (0.06) 0.23*** (0.05) 0.22*** (0.05) 0.22*** (0.05) 0.22*** (0.05)
Tax wedge   − 0.02 (0.02) − 0.03 (0.02) − 0.03 (0.02) − 0.03 (0.02) − 0.03 (0.02) − 0.03 (0.02)
Disproportionality index   0.06* (0.02) 0.06* (0.02) 0.06* (0.02) 0.06* (0.02) 0.06* (0.02) 0.06* (0.02)
Relative deprivation   0.42*** (0.04) 0.30*** (0.04) 0.37*** (0.04) 0.27*** (0.04) 0.11 (0.09) 0.21*** (0.05)
Unsatisfied with how government deals with unemployment    0.99*** (0.04)   0.93*** (0.05) 0.87*** (0.05) 0.93*** (0.05)
Blames government for economic difficulties     0.64*** (0.04) 0.57*** (0.04) 0.57*** (0.04) 0.52*** (0.05)
Relative deprivation × unsatisfied with how government deals with unemployment       0.21* (0.10)  
Relative deprivation × blames government for economic difficulties        0.14 (0.08)
Constant 0.97*** (0.20) − 3.75** (1.19) − 4.00*** (1.19) − 3.58** (1.10) − 3.83*** (1.13) − 3.81*** (1.14) − 3.83*** (1.13)
N 17,667 17,667 17,667 17,667 17,667 17,667 17,667
Log likelihood − 10,015.67 − 9367.04 − 9124.05 − 9222.45 − 9013.22 − 9010.92 − 9011.62
AIC 20,035.33 18,774.09 18,290.10 18,486.90 18,070.43 18,067.84 18,069.24
BIC 20,050.89 18,929.68 18,453.47 18,650.27 18,241.58 18,246.77 18,248.17
Sigma u 0.61 0.30 0.30 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.28
Rho 0.10 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
  1. Standard errors in parentheses
  2. * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001
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