Skip to main content

Cyber-attacks and psychological IR perspectives: explaining misperceptions and escalation risks

Journal of International Relations and Development volume 21, pages 523–551 (2018)Cite this article

Abstract

This article aims to assess the explanatory power of psychological perspectives for understanding political decision-making during cyber-attacks. After introductory remarks about social cognition and IR research, it is deductively argued that cyberspace should be prone to cognitive biases because of several issue area characteristics. The case studies that follow serve as rudimentary plausibility tests of this claim. The first focusses on threat perception and crisis decision-making in Estonia in 2007. It is argued that an inherent bad faith image of their Russian neighbour and a search for consistency led Estonian decision-makers to believe in a state-led cyber-attack despite a great deal of ambivalent evidence. Several smaller case studies show further evidence of misperceptions during a range of other cyber-attacks primarily against targets in the United States. Altogether these case studies demonstrate that cognitive approaches are promising tools for analysing cyber-related decision-making and for inferring policy recommendations. At the same time, there are serious methodological challenges that future studies need to address.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.

Access options

Buy single article

Instant access to the full article PDF.

USD 39.95

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

References

  • Associated Press (2009) ‘Officials Say North Korea Believed behind Cyber Attacks on SKorean, US Web Sites. from http://www.trurodaily.com/Living/World/2009-07-08/article-353120/Officials-say-North-Korea-believed-behind-cyber-attacks-on-SKorean,-US-Web-sites/1, accessed 17 October, 2013.

  • Axelrod, Robert and Rumen Iliev (2014) ‘Timing of Cyber Conflict’, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 111(4): 1298–303.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Axelrod, Robert and Robert O. Keohane (1993) ‘Achieving Cooperation Under Anarchy: Strategies and Institutions’, in David A. Baldwin, ed, Neorealism and Neoliberalism: The Contemporary Debate, 85–115, New York: Columbia University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Betz, David J. and Tim Stevens (2013) ‘Analogical Reasoning and Cyber Security,’ Security Dialogue 44(2): 147–64.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Boin, Arjen, Paul t’Hart, and Allan McConnell (2009) ‘Crisis Exploitation: Political and Policy Impacts of Framing Contests’, Journal of European Public Policy 16(1): 81–106.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bovens, Mark and Paul t’Hart, eds. (1996) Understanding Policy Fiascos, New Brunswick: Transaction Publishers.

    Google Scholar 

  • Brake, Benjamin (2015) Strategic Risks of Ambiguity in Cyberspace. New York: Council on Foreign Relations, from http://www.file:///C:/Users/Cordula/Downloads/CPA_ContingencyPlanningMemo_24.pdf, accessed 1 September 2015.

  • Brändström, Anneke and Sanneke Kuipers (2003) ‘From “Normal Incidents” to Political Crises: Understanding the Selective Politicization of Political Failures’, Government and Opposition 38(3): 279–305.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Carr, Jeffrey (2010) Inside Cyber Warfare, Sebastopol, CA: O’Reilly.

    Google Scholar 

  • Checkel, Jeffrey T. (1998) ‘The Constructive Turn in International Relations Theory’, World Politics 60(2): 324–48.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • CICIR and CSIS (2012) Bilateral Discussions on Cooperation in Cybersecurity, from http://csis.org/files/attachments/120615_JointStatement_CICIR.pdf, accessed 15 June, 2015.

  • Clarke, Richard A. and Robert K. Knake (2010) Cyberwar: The Next Threat to National Security and What to Do about it, New York: Harper/Collins.

    Google Scholar 

  • CNN (2007) ‘Estonia Suspects Kremlin in Web Attacks’, 17 May, from http://www.industrialdefender.com/general_downloads/incidents/2007.05.17_estonia_suspects_kremlin_in_web_attacks.pdf, 17 October, 2013.

  • Cottam, Martha L. et al. (2010) Introduction to Political Psychology, second edition, New York and Hove: Psychology Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Crisp, Richard J. and Rhiannon N. Turner (2010) Essential Social Psychology, second edition, London: Sage.

    Google Scholar 

  • Davis, Joshua (2007) ‘Hackers Take down the Most Wired Country in Europe’, Wired, 21 August, from http://www.wired.com/politics/security/magazine/15-09/ff_estonia, accessed 17 October, 2013.

  • Denning, Dorothy E. (1999) Information Warfare and Security, Reading, MA et al.: Addison-Wesley.

  • Dolman, Everett C. (2002) Astropolitik: Classical Geopolitics in the Space Age, London: Frank Cass.

    Google Scholar 

  • Douhet, Giulio (1942/1998) The Command of the Air, translated by Dino Ferrari, Tuscaloosa: University of Alabama Press.

  • Economist (2008) ‘Marching off to Cyberwar,’ 4 December, from http://www.economist.com/node/12673385, accessed 18 July, 2013).

  • Elliott, David (2009) ‘Weighing the Case for a Convention to Limit Cyberwarfare’, Arms Control Today, 5 November, from https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2009_11/Elliott, accessed 30 August, 2016.

  • Evron, Gadi (2009) ‘Authoratively, Who Was Behind the Estonian Attacks?’, 17 March, from http://www.darkreading.com/blog/227700882/authoritatively-who-was-behind-the-estonian-attacks.html, accessed 17 October, 2013.

  • Eun, Yong-Soo and Judith Sita Aßmann (2014) ‘Cyberwar: Taking Stock of Security and Warfare in the Digital Age’, International Studies Perspective, doi:10.1111/insp.12073.

    Google Scholar 

  • Farnham, Barbara, ed. (1994) Avoiding Losses/Taking Risks: Prospect Theory and International Conflict, Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Farwell, James P. and Rafal Rohozinski (2011) ‘Stuxnet and the Future of Cyberwar’, Survival 53(1): 23–40.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Feakin, Tobias and Jessica Woodall (2014) ‘Cyber Confidence Building in the Asia-Pacific: Three Big Take-Aways from the ARF’, in Strategist, from http://www.aspistrategist.org.au/cyber-confidence-building-in-the-asia-pacific-three-big-take-aways-from-the-arf/, accessed 15 June, 2015.

  • Financial Times (2007) ‘US Warns Cyber-Attacks will Increase’, 17 May, from http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/324fa472-049e-11dc-80ed-000b5df10621.html#axzz1Nej08Dbs, accessed 4 September, 2015.

  • Finn, Peter (2007) ‘Cyber Assaults on Estonia Typify a New Battle Tactic’, Washington Post (19 May): A01.

  • Finnemore, Martha (2011) ‘Cultivating International Cyber Norms’, in Kristin M. Lord and Travis Sharp, eds, America’s Cyber Future: Security and Prosperity in the Information Age: Volume II, 89–100, Washington: Center for a New American Security.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fiske, Susan T. and Shelley E. Taylor (2010) Social Cognition: From Brains to Culture, Boston: McGraw Hill.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fox News (2009) ‘Pentagon Official: North Korea behind Week of Cyber Attacks’, 9 July, from http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,530781,00.html, accessed 17 October, 2013.

  • Gartzke, Erik (2013) ‘The Myth of Cyberwar: Bringing War in Cyberspace Back down to Earth’, International Security 38(2): 41–73.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gaycken, Sandro (2011) Cyberwar: Das Internet als Kriegsschauplatz, Munich: Open Source Press.

  • Gorman, Siobhan (2009) ‘Electricity Grid in U.S. Penetrated by Spies’, Wall Street Journal, 8 April, available at http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123914805204099085.html, accessed 17 October, 2013.

  • Gray, Colin S., ed. (1999) Geopolitics, Geography and Strategy, London: Frank Cass.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gross-Stein, Janice (2002) ‘Psychological Explanations of International Conflict’, in Walter Carlsnaes, Thomas Risse and Beth A. Simmons, eds, Handbook of International Relations, 292–308, London: Sage Publications.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gross-Stein, Janice and David A. Welch (1997) ‘Rational and Psychological Approaches to the Study of International Conflict: Comparative Strenghts and Weaknesses’, in Nehemia Geva and Alex Mintz, eds, Decision-making on War and Peace: The Cognitive-Rational Debate, 51–77, Boulder: Lynne Rienner.

    Google Scholar 

  • Guadagno, Rosanna E., Robert B. Cialdini and Gadi Evron (2010) ‘Storming the Servers: A Social Psychological Analysis of the First Internet War’, Cyberpsychology, Behavior, and Social Networking 13(4): 447–53.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Haas, Peter M. (1992) ‘Introduction: Epistemic Communities and International Policy Coordination’, International Organization 46(1): 1–35.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Halpin, Tony (2007) ‘Estonia Accuses Russia of “Waging Cyber War”’, Times Online, 17 May, from http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article1802959.ece, accessed 27 May, 2011.

  • He, Kai and Huiyun Feng (2012) Prospect Theory and Foreign Policy Analysis in the Asia Pacific: Rational Leaders and Risky Behavior, New York: Routledge.

    Google Scholar 

  • Heise Media (2007) ‘Estonian DDoS — A Final Analysis’, 31 May, from http://www.h-online.com/security/news/item/Estonian-DDoS-a-final-analysis-732971.html?view=print, accessed 17 October, 2013.

  • Hoffman, Frank G. (2009) ‘Hybrid Warfare and Challenges’, Small Arms Journal 52(1): 34–39.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hughes, Rex (2010) ‘A Treaty for Cyberspace’, International Affairs 86(2): 523–41.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hyde, Susan D. (2015) ‘Experiments in International Relations: Lab, Survey, and Field’, Annual review of Political Science 18: 403–23.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jervis, Robert (1976) Perception and Misperception in International Politics, Princeton: Princeton University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Jervis, Robert (1986) ‘Cognition and Political Behavior’, in Richard R. Lau and David O. Sears, eds, Political Cognition, 319–37, Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates.

    Google Scholar 

  • Jervis, Robert (1988) ‘War and Misperception’, Journal of Interdisciplinary History 18(4): 675.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Johnson, David E. (2010) Military Capabilities for Hybrid War: Insights from the Israel Defense Forces in Lebanon and Gaza, Santa Monica, CA: Rand, available at http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/occasional_papers/2010/RAND_OP285.pdf, accessed 3 September, 2015.

  • Jones, Edward E. and Richard E. Nisbett (1972) ‘The Actor and the Observer: Divergent Perceptions of the Causes of Behavior’, in Edward E. Jones et al., eds, Attribution: Perceiving the Causes of Behavior, 79–94, Morristown, NJ: General Learning Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Junio, Timothy J. (2013) ‘How Probable is Cyber War? Bringing IR Theory Back into the Cyber Conflict Debate’, Journal of Strategic Studies 36(1): 125–33.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jæger, Øyvind (2000) ‘Securitizing Russia: Discursive Practices of the Baltic States’, Peace and Conflict Studies 7(2), from http://nsuworks.nova.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1009&context=pcs, accessed 3 August, 2015.

  • Kahnemann, Daniel and Amos Tversky (1972) ‘Subjective Probability: A Judgement of Representativeness’, Cognitive Psychology 3: 430–54.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kello, Lucas (2013) ‘The Meaning of the Cyber Revolution: Perils to Theory and Statecraft’, International Security 38(2): 7–40.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Khong, Yuen F. (1992) Analogies at War: Korea, Munich, Dien Bien Phu, and the Vietnam Decisions of 1965, Princeton: Princeton University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • King, Gary, Robert O. Keohane and Sidney Verba (1994) Designing Social Inquiry: Scientific Inference in Qualitative Research, Princeton: Princeton University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Klein, John J. (2004) ‘Corbett in Orbit: A Maritime Model for Strategic Space Theory’, Naval War College Review 57(1): 59–74.

    Google Scholar 

  • Klimburg, Alexander (2011) ‘Mobilising Cyber Power’, Survival 53(1): 41–60.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Klimburg, Alexander (2014) ‘Roots Unknown: Cyberconflict Past, Present & Future’, Sicherheit + Frieden/Security + Peace 32(1): 1–8.

  • Kopan, Tal (2014) ‘U.S.: No Alternate Leads in Sony Hack’, Politico, from http://www.politico.com/story/2014/12/fbi-briefed-on-alternate-sony-hack-theory-113866, accessed 2 September, 2015.

  • Kramer, Franklin D., Stuart H. Starr and Larry K. Wentz, eds (2009) Cyberpower and National Security, Washington: National Defense University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Krebs, Brian (2010) ‘Cable: No Cyber Attack in Brazilian “09 Blackout”’, 3 December, from http://krebsonsecurity.com/2010/12/cable-no-cyber-attack-in-brazilian-09-blackout/, accessed 17 October, 2013.

  • Kydd, Andrew H. (2008) ‘Methodological Individualism and Rational Choice’, in Christian Reus-Smit and Duncan Snidal, eds, The Oxford Handbook of International Relations, 425–43, Oxford: Oxford University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lawson, Sean (2011) Beyond Cyber-Doom: Cyberattack Scenarios and the Evidence of History, Fairfax, VA: George Mason University, from http://mercatus.org/sites/default/files/publication/beyond-cyber-doom-cyber-attack-scenarios-evidence-history_1.pdf, accessed 16 June, 2011.

  • Levy, Jack S. (2003) ‘Political Psychology and Foreign Policy’, in David O. Sears, Leonie Huddy and Robert Jervis, eds, Oxford Handbook of Political Psychology, 253–84, Oxford: Oxford University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lewis, James (2005) Computer Espionage, Titan Rain and China, Washington: Center for Strategic and International Studies, from http://csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/051214_china_titan_rain.pdf, accessed 17 October, 2013.

  • Libicki, Martin C. (2007) Conquest in Cyberspace: National Security and Information Warfare, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Libicki, Martin C. (2009) Cyberdeterrence and Cyberwar, Santa Monica: RAND.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lonsdale, David (1999) ‘Information Power: Strategy, Geopolitics and the Fifth Dimension’, in Colin S. Gray, ed, Geopolitics, Geography and Strategy, 137–57, London: Frank Cass.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lonsdale, David J. (2004) The Nature of War in the Information Age, London: Frank Cass.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lindsay, Jon R. (2013) ‘Stuxnet and the Limits of Cyber Warfare’, Security Studies 22(3): 365–404.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mahan, Alfred T. (1890) The Influence of Sea Power upon History 1660–1783, Boston: Little, Brown and Company.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mannes, Aaron and James Hendler (2008) ‘The First Modern Cyberwar,’ Guardian, 22 August, from http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/aug/22/russia.georgia1, accessed 17 November, 2010.

  • March, James G. and Johan P. Olsen (2006) ‘The Logic of Appropriateness’, in Michael Moran, Martin Rein and Robert E. Goodin, eds, The Oxford Handbook of Public Policy, 689–708, Oxford: Oxford University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Marfleet, B. Gregory (2000) ‘The Operational Code of John F. Kennedy During the Cuban Missile Crisis: A Comparison of Public and Private Rhetoric’, Political Psychology 21(3): 545–58.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Markoff, John and David Barboza (2009) ‘Academic Paper in China Sets off Alarms in U.S.’, New York Times, 20 March, from http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/21/world/asia/21grid.html accessed 17 October, 2013.

  • McDermott, Rose (1998) Risk-Taking in International Politics: Prospect Theory in American Foreign Policy, Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Mintz, Alex, Yi Yang and Rose McDermott (2011) ‘Experimental Approaches to International Relations’, International Studies Quarterly 55(2): 493–501.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mite, Valentinas (2007) ‘Attacks Seen as First Case of “Cyberwar”’, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 30 May, from http://www.rferl.org/content/article/1076805.html, accessed 1 September, 2015.

  • Mitzen, Jennifer and Randall L. Schweller (2011) ‘Knowing the Unknown Unknowns: Misplaced Certainty and the Onset of War’, Security Studies 20(1): 2–35.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moran, Daniel (2007) ‘Geography and Strategy’, in John Baylis et al., eds, Strategy in the Contemporary World: An Introduction to Strategic Studies, 122–40, Oxford: Oxford University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Moravcsik, Andrew (1997) ‘Taking Preferences Seriously: A Liberal Theory of International Politics’, International Organization 51(4): 513–53.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nelson, Bill et al. (1999) Cyberterror: Prospects and Implications, Monterey, CA: Center for the Study of Terrorism and Irregular Warfare.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Neuneck, Götz (2010) ‘Towards TCBMS in the Cybersphere’, in UNIDIR, ed, The Cyber Index: International Security Trends and Realities, New York and Geneva.

  • Neustadt, Richard E. and Ernest R. May (1986) Thinking in Time: The Uses of History for Decision Makers, New York: Free Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Nye, Joseph S. (2011) ‘Power and National Security in Cyberspace’, in Kristin M. Lord and Travis Sharp, eds, America’s Cyber Future: Security and Prosperity in the Information Age: Volume II, 7–23, Washington: Center for a New American Security.

    Google Scholar 

  • Oberg, James (1999) Space Power Theory, Colorado Springs: US Air Force Academy.

    Google Scholar 

  • OSCE (2013) Initial Set of OECD Confidence-Building Measures to Reduce the Risk of Conflict Stemming from the Use of Information and Communication Technologies, Decision No. 1106, PC.DEC/1106, 3 December.

  • Owens, William A., Kenneth W. Dam and Herbert S. Lin (2009) Technology, Policy, Law, and Ethics Regarding U.S. Acquisition and Use of Cyberattack Capabilities, Washington: National Academies Press.

  • Pau, Aivar (2007) ‘Statement by the Foreign Minister Urmas Paet’, Eesti Päevaleht, 1 May, from http://www.epl.ee/artikkel/384207, accessed 17 October, 2013.

  • Qingling, Dong (2014) Confidence Building for Cybersecurity between China and the United States, China Institute of International Studies, 23 September, from http://www.ciis.org.cn/english/2014-09/23/content_7254470.htm, accessed 15 June, 2015.

  • Rathmell, Andrew (2001) ‘Controlling Computer Network Operations’, Information and Security 7(1): 121–44.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rauscher, Karl Frederick and Valery Yaschenko (2011) Russia-U.S. Bilateral on Cybersecurity: Critical Terminology Foundations, New York and Moscow: East West Institute/Information Security Institute.

  • Renshon, Jonathan (2009) ‘When Public Statements Reveal Private Beliefs: Assessing Operational Codes at a Distance’, Political Psychology 30(4): 649–61.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rid, Thomas (2012) ‘Think Again: Cyberwar’, Foreign Policy, 27 February, from http://foreignpolicy.com/2012/02/27/think-again-cyberwar/, accessed on 30 January, 2016.

  • Rid, Thomas (2013) Cyber War Will Not Take Place, London: Hurst & Company.

    Google Scholar 

  • Russell, Alison L. (2014) Cyber Blockades, Washington: Georgetown University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ruus, Kertu (2008) ‘Cyber War I: Estonia Attacked from Russia’, European Affairs 9(1–2): from http://www.europeaninstitute.org/index.php/component/content/article?id=67:cyber-war-i-estonia-attacked-from-russia, accessed 3 September, 2015.

  • Sanger, David E. (2015) ‘U.S. and China Seek Arms Deal for Cyberspace’, New York Times, 19 September, from http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/20/world/asia/us-and-china-seek-arms-deal-for-cyberspace.html, accessed 31 January, 2016.

  • Shachtman, Noah (2009) ‘Top Georgian Offical: Moscow Cyber Attacked Us – We Just Can’t Prove it,’ Wired, 11 March, from http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2009/03/georgia-blames/, accessed 31 May, 2011.

  • Smith, David J. (1998) ‘Russia, Estonia and the Search for a Stable Ethno-Politics’, Journal of Baltic Studies 29(1): 3–18.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Simon, Herbert A. (1985) ‘Human Nature in Politics: The Dialogue of Psychology with Political Science’, American Political Science Review 79(2): 293–304.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stauffacher, Daniel and Camino Kavanagh (2013) Confidence Building Measures and International Cyber Security, Geneva: ICT4Peace Foundation, from http://ict4peace.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/processbrief_2013_cbm_wt-71.pdf, accessed 15 June, 2015.

  • Swayne, Jon (2008) ‘Georgia: “Russia Conducting Cyberwar”’, Telegraph, 11 August, from http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/georgia/2539157/Georgia-Russia-conducting-cyber-war.html, from 31 May, 2011.

  • Tetlock, Philip E. (1998) ‘Social Psychology and World Politics’, in Daniel T.Gilbert, Susan Fiske and Gardner Lindzey, eds, The Handbook of Social Psychology, Vol. II, 868–912, Boston: McGraw-Hill.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tetlock, Philip E. and Charles McGuire (1986) ‘Cognitive Perspectives on Foreign Policy’, in Samuel Long, ed, Political Behavior Annual, Volume I, 147–79, London: Westview Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Traynor, Ian (2007) ‘Russia Accused of Unleashing Cyberwar to Disable Estonia’, Guardian, 17 May, from http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2007/may/17/topstories3.russia, accessed 17 October, 2013.

  • Tversky, Amos and Daniel Kahnemann (1974) ‘Judgement under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases’, Science 185: 1124–31.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • United Nations General Assembly (2011) International Code of Conduct for Information Security, A/66/359, 12 September.

  • United Nations General Assembly (2013) Report of the Group of Governmental Experts on Developments in the Field of Information and Telecommunications in the Context of International Security, A/68/69, 24 June, from http://www.mofa.go.jp/files/000016407.pdf, accessed 30 January, 2016.

  • US Embassy Tallinn (2007a) Estonia’s Cyber Attacks: World’s First Virtual Attack against Nation State, 4 June, published by WikiLeaks, from http://WikiLeaks.ch/cable/2007/06/07TALLINN366.html, accessed 28 May, 2011.

  • US Embassy Tallinn (2007b) Estonia: GOE Officials on the Bronze Solider, Russia and Integration, 11 May, published by WikiLeaks, from http://aebr.home.xs4all.nl/wl/tallinn/07Talinn/07TALLINN310.html, accessed 28 May, 2011.

  • US Embassy Tallinn (2007c) Russian Bear Hug Squeezes Estonian Economy, 24 May, published by WikiLeaks, from http://77aebr.home.xs4all.nl/wl/tallinn/07TALLINN347.html, accessed 28 May, 2011.

  • Verhulst, Brad and Mary-Kate Lizotte (2011) ‘The Influence of Affective States on the Depth of Information Processing’, in Marcos Engelken-Jorge et al., eds., Politics and Emotions — The Obama Phenomenon, 73–94, Wiesbaden: VS.

    Google Scholar 

  • Vertzberger, Yaacov Y. I. (1990) The World in their Minds: Information Processing, Cognition, and Perception in Foreign Policy Decision Making, Stanford: Stanford University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Vijayan, Jaikumar (2007) ‘Black Hat: Estonia Attacks an Example of Online Rioting, Says Researcher’, Computerworld, 2 August, from http://www.computerworld.com/article/2542850/security0/black-hat–estonia-attacks-an-example-of-online-rioting–says-researcher.html, accessed 3 September, 2015.

  • Voss, James F. and Ellen Dorsey (1992) ‘Perception and International Relations: An Overview’, in Eric Singer and Valerie M. Hudson, eds, Political Psychology and Foreign Policy, 3–30, Boulder, CO: Westview Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Walker, George K. (2000) ‘Information Warfare and Neutrality’, Vanderbilt Journal of Transnational Law 33(5): 1079–200.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang, Jian-Wei and Li-Li Rong (2009) ‘Cascade-based Attack Vulnerability on the US Power Grid’, Safety Science 47(10): 1332–36.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Waterman, Shaun (2009) ‘July 4 Cyberattack Called “very minor”’, Washington Times, 16 July, from http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/jul/16/july-4-cyberattack-called-very-minor/, accessed 17 October, 2013.

  • Waterman, Shaun (2008) ‘Analysis: Russia-Georgia Cyberwar Doubted,’ Spacewar.com, from http://www.spacewar.com/reports/Analysis_Russia-Georgia_cyberwar_doubted_999.html, accessed 31 May, 2011.

  • Welch-Larson, Deborah (1988) ‘The Psychology of Reciprocity in international Relations’, Negotiation Journal 4(3): 281–301.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wendt, Alexander (1999) Social Theory of International Politics, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • White House (2011) Joint Statement by Cybersecurity Coordinator Schmidt and Deputy Secretary Klimashin, Washington, from http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/uploads/2011_klimashin_schmidt_cyber_joint_statement.pdf, accessed 17 October, 2013.

  • Wingfield, Thomas C. (2009) ‘International Law and Information Operations’, in Franklin D. Kramer, Stuart H.Starr and Larry K. Wentz, eds, Cyberpower and National Security, 525–42, Washington: National Defense University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wortzel, Larry M. (2010) China’s Approach to Cyber Operations, Testimony before the Committee on Foreign Affairs, 10 March, Washington, from http://www.internationalrelations.house.gov/111/wor031010.pdf, accessed 10 August, 2011.

  • Zetter, Kim (2009a) ‘Lawmaker Wants “Show of Force” against North Korea for Website Attacks’, Wired, 10 July, from http://www.wired.com/threatlevel/2009/07/show-of-force/, accessed 17 October, 2013.

  • Zetter, Kim (2009b) ‘Lazy Hacker and Little Worm Set Off Cyberwar Fenzy’, Wired, 8 July, from http://www.wired.com/threatlevel/2009/07/mydoom/, accessed 17 October, 2013.

  • Zetter, Kim (2011) ‘Exclusive: Comedy of Errors Led to False “Water-Pump Hack” Report,’ Wired, 30 November, frfom http://www.wired.com/threatlevel/2011/11/water-pump-hack-mystery-solved/, accessed 17 October, 2013.

Download references

Acknowledgments

Some of the empirical material in this article has come out of my PhD research at the University of Cologne. An earlier version of the paper has been presented at the 2015 Annual Conference of the British International Studies Association (BISA) in London. The author wishes to thank all panellists as well as two anonymous reviewers for many helpful comments and suggestions that enabled him to clarify and improve his argument.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute for Political Science, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Room 206, Karl-Glöckner Str. 21 E, 35394, Giessen, Germany

    Mischa Hansel

Authors
  1. Mischa Hansel
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Mischa Hansel.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Hansel, M. Cyber-attacks and psychological IR perspectives: explaining misperceptions and escalation risks. J Int Relat Dev 21, 523–551 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41268-016-0075-8

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/s41268-016-0075-8

Keywords

  • cognitive approaches
  • cyber-attacks
  • cyberspace
  • misperception
  • psychological IR theories