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A seat-level nowcast of the Front National in the 2017 legislatives

French Politics volume 14, pages 493–504 (2016)Cite this article

Abstract

We look to forecast the number of seats the Front National (FN) will win in the 2017 legislative election. We use the most recent subnational ballot, the 2015 regional election, to estimate support for the party, and model reallocation of first-round legislative votes in the second round by applying the pattern seen between the 2011 cantonal and 2012 legislative elections. Using different levels of turnout and four different scenarios of Left-bloc coalition arrangements, both of which strongly influence how the FN performs in run-off ballots, we estimate that a likely, but conservative, scenario would result in 29 FN seats, if a similar pattern to 2011–2012 obtains. This number of seats would allow the FN to form a Parliamentary group in the National Assembly.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Politics and International Studies, University of Leeds, Social Sciences Building, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK

    Jocelyn Evans

  2. URMIS-CNRS, University of Nice-Sophia Antipolis, Nice, France

    Gilles Ivaldi

Authors
  1. Jocelyn Evans
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  2. Gilles Ivaldi
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Correspondence to Jocelyn Evans.

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Evans, J., Ivaldi, G. A seat-level nowcast of the Front National in the 2017 legislatives. Fr Polit 14, 493–504 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41253-016-0006-5

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/s41253-016-0006-5

Keywords

  • Front National
  • legislative elections
  • forecast
  • seats
  • turnout