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Business Economics

, Volume 53, Issue 3, pp 134–140 | Cite as

Immigration and United States Economic Growth

  • Frederick Treyz
  • Peter Evangelakis
Original Article

Abstract

Immigration policy is one of the most hotly contested political issues in the United States. In this paper, we evaluate the role of immigration in the U.S. economy. We pose the counterfactual question, “what would happen if net migration to the U.S. were to cease?” Using the REMI PI+ macroeconomic policy analysis model, we set to zero international immigration from 2018 to 2060, and estimate the national- and state-level economic and demographic implications of this change. Our estimates show that, in the absence of immigration, total U.S. employment would peak in 2019, and the U.S. GDP and labor force would decline by 20% through 2060. Per capita income and GDP effects, however, are relatively minor and sensitive to assumptions in labor and capital markets.

keywords

Immigration Economic growth Demographics Labor market Regional economic modeling 

Notes

Acknowledgments

We would like to acknowledge excellent research assistance from Jeffrey Dykes.

References

  1. Congressional Budget Office. 2018. Potential GDP and underlying inputs. In Supplement to an update to the budget and economic outlook: 2018 to 2028. Google Scholar
  2. US Census Bureau. 2017. CO-EST2016-alldata: Annual resident population estimates, estimated components of resident population change, and rates of the components of resident population change for states and counties: April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2016. Google Scholar
  3. US Census Bureau. 2014. NP2014_D4: Projected net international migration by single year of age, sex, race, and hispanic origin for the United States: 2014 to 2060. Google Scholar

Copyright information

© National Association for Business Economics 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Regional Economic Models, Inc.AmherstUSA

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