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The role of expertise in dynamic risk assessment: A reflection of the problem-solving strategies used by experienced fireground commanders

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Abstract

Although the concept of dynamic risk assessment has in recent times become more topical in the training manuals of most high-risk domains, only a few empirical studies have reported how experts actually carry out this crucial task. The knowledge gap between research and practice in this area, therefore, calls for more empirical investigation within the naturalistic environment. In this article, we present and discuss the problem-solving strategies employed by 16 experienced operational firefighters using a qualitative knowledge elicitation tool – the critical decision method. Findings revealed that dynamic risk assessment is not merely a process of weighing the risks of a proposed course of action against its benefits, but rather an experiential and pattern recognition process. The article concludes by discussing the implications of designing training curriculum for the less experienced officers using the elicited expert knowledge.

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Notes

  1. Note that participants’ rank and years of experience are displayed in parenthesis next to their names (pseudonyms) for ease of reference.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centre for Decision Analysis and Risk Management, School of Science and Technology, Middlesex University, Room 210, Town Hall Annexe, The Burrough, Hendon, London, NW4 4BT, UK

    Justin Okoli & John Watt

  2. Department of Mental Health, Social Work and Inter-professional Learning, School of Health and Education, Middlesex University, Room F606, Town Hall, The Burrough, Hendon, London, NW4 4BT, UK

    Gordon Weller

  3. Department of Computer Science, School of Science and Technology, Middlesex University, TG19A, Town Hall, The Burrough, Hendon, London, NW4 4BT, UK

    William B L Wong

Authors
  1. Justin Okoli
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  2. John Watt
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  3. Gordon Weller
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  4. William B L Wong
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Correspondence to Justin Okoli.

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Okoli, J., Watt, J., Weller, G. et al. The role of expertise in dynamic risk assessment: A reflection of the problem-solving strategies used by experienced fireground commanders. Risk Manag 18, 4–25 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1057/rm.2015.20

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