Explaining why state X made a certain move last Tuesday: the promise and limitations of realist foreign policy analysis

Abstract

What are the main challenges facing realist foreign policy analysis today? Which strategies might realists follow in order to answer these challenges? This article argues that contemporary realism faces two fundamental challenges when attempting to explain foreign policy. The first challenge is to combine structural factors with other variables without ending up with a collection of ad hoc arguments. The second, and related, challenge is to combine the realist emphasis on the continued importance of materialist factors such as power with the observation that these factors are interpreted and perceived — not objectively measured — by human beings making foreign policy. The article explores the potential of contemporary realism in order to shed light on the nature of the challenges and discuss how they might be answered.