Alternative Models for forecasting U.S. Exports

Abstract

Traditionally, models of U.S. exports tend to emphasize relationships involving independent variables that measure demand in the importing countries, domestic (U.S.) demand or the level of business activity, direct foreign investment, U.S. grants and loans, etc. This paper compares several of these traditional forecasting methods with a number of time-series techniques. The results indicate that U.S. exports can be forecasted with the use of several alternative models.