SADC: Making sense of uncertainty in Southern Africa

Abstract

Scenario exercises have become something akin to a cottage industry in South Africa, primarily because they provide such a useful prism through which to understand future and unfolding trends. In the South African setting, they have a proven pedigree since this is a country that has been subject to great collective uncertainty, fear and anxiety about its future and the various scenario efforts have inspired very interesting public and policy discourses. Garth Le Pere refers to several scenario case studies conducted in South Africa and describes his organization's involvement in a scenario exercise for southern Africa highlighting some methodological, disciplinary and conceptual challenges that emerge from the scenario approach.