Forecasting and Evaluating the Consequences of Electoral Change: Scotland and Wales

Abstract

Elections to devolved institutions in Scotland and Wales are held using the Additional Member System. This was adopted to help Labour secure support for their devolution policy from the Liberal Democrats. However, the system was crafted to give Labour a partisan benefit. The additional seats are allocated regionally, there is a low ratio of list to constituency seats and a high de facto threshold. The system's advocates hoped it would promote female representation and facilitate more nuanced electoral choice. Only some expectations have been fulfilled. Labour has won a higher proportion of seats than votes. Some voters have split their votes to vote for the constituency candidate they like most. But the list element did not enhance female representation, voters did not necessarily express a coalition preference, while in Scotland smaller parties have broken through the de facto threshold. Meanwhile, significant tensions have emerged between constituency and list representatives.