Abstract
The article examines the possible implications of climate change for seaport competition and for the local hinterlands of ports of countries that border the Adriatic. The focus is on the effects that further increases in the annual durations over which the Northern Sea Route is navigable will have on costs of shipping between Asian and Europe and, in turn, the effects of this on the various small Mediterranean seaport regions around the Northern Adriatic. The simulation based analysis finds that while North European seaports may, as might be expected, benefit from the new routings, there would be adverse affects on the hinterlands of most North Adriatic ports as fewer sailing pass them.
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Notes
An account of the historical development of the Northeast Passage, together with the technical requirements for ships using is found in Ragner (2008).
The preference rate reflects the preferences expressed by liners for calling at a particular port. This is estimated later using a stated-preference approach.
The data are publically available rates from Slovenian Railways, but in practice the actual rates may deviate from these (Nash, 2005).
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Button, K., Kramberger, T., Vizinger, T. et al. Economic implications for Adriatic seaport regions of further opening of the Northern Sea Route. Marit Econ Logist 19, 52–67 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1057/mel.2015.25
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/mel.2015.25