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IMF Economic Review

, Volume 60, Issue 4, pp 570–599 | Cite as

Macroeconomic Performance During Commodity Price Booms and Busts

  • Luis Felipe Céspedes
  • Andrés Velasco
Article

Abstract

Fluctuations in commodity prices are often associated with macroeconomic volatility. But not all nations are created equal in this regard. The macro response to commodity booms and busts depends both on the structural characteristics of the economy and on the policy framework that is in place. This paper investigates the macro response of a group of commodity-producing nations in episodes of large commodity prices shocks. First, it provides a theoretical framework to analyze how shocks to commodity prices affect the domestic economy. For this the paper uses a simple open-economy model with nominal rigidities and financial frictions. Then it provides empirical evidence (using commodity price boom and bust episodes) that commodity price shocks have a significant impact on output and investment dynamics. Economies with more flexible exchange rate regimes exhibit less pronounced responses of output during these episodes. The paper also provides evidence that the impact of those shocks on investment tends to be larger for economies with less developed financial markets. Moreover, it finds that international reserve accumulation, more stable political systems, and less open capital accounts tend to reduce the real exchange rate appreciation (depreciation) in episodes of commodity price booms (busts).

JEL Classifications

E32 E44 E52 F30 F31 F41 

Notes

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Copyright information

© International Monetary Fund 2012

Authors and Affiliations

  • Luis Felipe Céspedes
  • Andrés Velasco

There are no affiliations available

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