French Politics

, Volume 13, Issue 1, pp 103–109

Forecasting partisan dynamics in France and in Euroland

  • Bruno Jerôme
  • Véronique Jerôme-Speziari
  • Richard Nadeau
  • Michael S Lewis-Beck
Data, Measures and Methods

DOI: 10.1057/fp.2014.24

Cite this article as:
Jerôme, B., Jerôme-Speziari, V., Nadeau, R. et al. Fr Polit (2015) 13: 103. doi:10.1057/fp.2014.24

Abstract

Election forecasting has become a standard part of the tool kit for political scientists around the world. However, that focus is almost exclusively on forecasting national electoral contests. Here we offer another, unique, focus – the changing political color of the core nations of the European Union, the Fifteen. First, we offer a model that forecasts the fortune of classic right-wing rule for this region, labeled Euroland. Then, we examine those forecasts, as compared with France in particular. France holds special interest because, according to our forecasts for 2015, it could well swing right, while the rest of Euroland goes left. One suggestion, of course, is that the tradition of French exceptionalism will continue.

Keywords

election forecasting French national elections the classical right-wing economic voting 

Copyright information

© Palgrave Macmillan, a division of Macmillan Publishers Ltd 2015

Authors and Affiliations

  • Bruno Jerôme
    • 1
  • Véronique Jerôme-Speziari
    • 2
  • Richard Nadeau
    • 3
  • Michael S Lewis-Beck
    • 4
  1. 1.Department of EconomicsUniversity of Paris 2 Panthéon-Assas
  2. 2.Department of ManagementUniversity of Paris Sud
  3. 3.Department of Political ScienceUniversity of MontrealMontrealCanada
  4. 4.Department of Political ScienceUniversity of IowaIowa CityUSA

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