French Politics

, Volume 10, Issue 1, pp 1–10 | Cite as

Proxy models for election forecasting: The 2012 French test

  • Richard Nadeau
  • Michael S Lewis-Beck
  • Éric Bélanger
Symposium Article

Abstract

The several models of French presidential election forecasting that have been proposed focus virtually exclusively on substantive explanation of the vote, embedded within a single-equation macro-model. We offer something different – a powerful Proxy Model based on prediction alone. However, that model itself forms part of a larger two-equation system, which includes both explanation as well as prediction of the presidential vote. Our Proxy Model is estimated on the eight popular presidential elections of the Fifth Republic, and tested on the upcoming 2012 contest. The Proxy Model, 6 months in advance of that race, forecasts a Left victory and a Sarkozy defeat.

Keywords

election forecasting French presidential elections French elections proxy models forecasting theory 

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Copyright information

© Palgrave Macmillan, a division of Macmillan Publishers Ltd 2012

Authors and Affiliations

  • Richard Nadeau
    • 1
  • Michael S Lewis-Beck
    • 2
  • Éric Bélanger
    • 3
  1. 1.Département de science politique, Université de MontréalMontrealCanada
  2. 2.Department of Political ScienceUniversity of IowaIowa CityUSA
  3. 3.Department of Political ScienceMcGill UniversityMontrealCanada

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