Ten Puzzles and Surprises Economic and Social Change in Vietnam, 1993-1998

Abstract

Between 1993 and 1998 Vietnam's GDP grew by 8.9% annually. Recently-available household survey data of high quality show several apparently surprising changes: the total fertility rate fell rapidly from 3.2 to 1.8, son preference has almost disappeared, child stunting fell from 53% to 34% among under-fives, the open unemployment rate is just 1.6%, teenage girls are more likely to be at school and at work, more people report being sick, poverty rates have plummeted, and rural lenders also borrow. Two broad conclusions emerge. Vietnam is undergoing rapid social change. And when the changes are compared with neighboring countries, especially China, they largely cease to be puzzling or surprising.