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If the issue fits, stay put: Cleavage stability, issue compatibility and drastic changes on the immigration ‘issue’

Comparative European Politics volume 12, pages 663–679 (2014)Cite this article

Abstract

The political mainstream in the Netherlands and Sweden has been challenged by a growing support for the populist radical right and a public opinion that is increasingly dissatisfied with the pursued immigration/integration policies. Conventional narratives suggest that parties respond to these cues by making drastic shifts to their manifesto positions, either in a restrictive/assimilationist or liberal/multicultural direction, as a way of pre-empting any electoral losses or dismissing the niche position. While the Dutch parties have been more likely than their Swedish counterparts to make such changes, they have not always been connected to the above stimuli. The article argues instead that such positional volatility is amplified by the (in)stability of the societal fault lines, and the relative fit between these cleavages and parties’ choice of issue framing (economic or socio-cultural). While providing some support for supply-and-demand explanations, the article’s focus on dimensional stability and issue fit calls attention to the variability in conflict mobilisation and the role of mainstream parties as active agents in shaping debates on immigration and integration.

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Figure 1

Notes

  1. The 2010 version, however, contains questions relating to both immigration and integration (Bakker et al, 2012).

  2. Manifestos were gathered from http://www.rug.nl/dnpp/index; http://snd.gu.se/en/vivill and from individual party websites. The 2003 election (NL) is omitted as CDA and PvdA ran the same manifestos as in 2002. The four centre-right parties in Sweden issued a single coalition manifesto in 2006 and 2010 but also published individual manifestos or party programmes. The former are used for FP, CP and KD (2006–2010), whereas the latter were used for M (2006–2010).

  3. ‘Mainstream party’ is defined as one likely to be a ‘dominant force[s] in the formation of government’ (Ackland and Gibson, 2013, p. 235), or act as a ‘junior’ partner in this process (either in a formal coalition or as an informal supporter in parliament). They also need to correspond Caramani’s (2004) categories (1–10) and not be classified as radical/extremist/far-left/right in the literature (Mudde, 2007). This gave six (NL) and seven (SWE) parties: CDA (Christen-Democratisch Appèl), VVD (Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie), D’66 (Politieke Partij Democraten 66), PvdA (Partij van de Arbeid), SP (Socialistische Partij) and GL (Groen-Links), M (Moderaterna), FP (Folkpartiet), KD (Kristdemokraterna), CP (Centerpartiet), SAP (Sveriges socialdemokratiska arbetareparti), MP (Miljöpartiet) and V (Vänsterpartiet).

  4. (1) Immigration (in general)+(2) Labour Migration+(3) Asylum Seekers and Refugees+(4) Family Reunification+(5) Unaccompanied Minors+(6) Student Migration+(7) Integration.

  5. ‘Immigration’, ‘Labour’, ‘Asylum’, ‘Refugee’, ‘Family’, ‘Unaccompanied’, ‘Minor’, ‘Student’, ‘Illegal’, ‘Undocumented’, ‘Clandestine’ and ‘Integration’.

  6. ‘Immigration (in general) and ‘Student Migration’ were scored: (−1) if the statement considered the category to have a predominantly positive effect on society and (+1) if negative.

  7. This particular scoring system may appear counter-intuitive but is adopted so as to be consistent with De Lange’s measurement scheme.

  8. For example, references made to the effects on labour market and employment agreements, the ‘knowledge economy’ and/or [country’s] position in the global economy.

  9. For example, references made to ‘rights’ (to family life and of children), and/or to state-individual relations (for example, access to education, issues of detention or deportation).

  10. Included references to, for example, allow applicants to work and/or eligibility to welfare benefits, (global) human rights/nationalist concerns, ‘real’/‘bogus’ claims, role of national/supra-national levels in the decision-making process, labour market access, discrimination legislation, support for ethnic entrepreneurs, conflicting values, multiculturalism/assimilation and language acquisition.

  11. If the manifesto discussed the category in relation to its economic/socio-cultural implications a score of (1) was given, regardless of the number of times mentioned. If not mentioned, a score of (0) was given. The total category score was then divided by number of parties, and each individual category were added together to provide the total score for that year.

  12. The following formula was used: average change (No PRR in parliament): [total number of changes/parties × number of election cycles]; average change (PRR in parliament): [total number of changes/parties × number of election cycles].

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Acknowledgements

Research support under the Economic and Social Research Council’s First Grant Scheme (RES-061-25–0195) is gratefully acknowledged. The authors would also like to thank the anonymous referees, Dirk Jacobs, Elizabeth Bomberg and Ailsa Henderson for additional input and comments during the revision stages of the article.

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  1. University of Edinburgh, School of Social and Political Science, Chrystal MacMillan Building, 15A George Square, Edinburgh, EH8 9LD, UK

    Pontus Odmalm

  2. (APSA) American Political Science Association, 1527 New Hampshire Ave, Washington DC, 20036, NW, USA

    Betsy Super

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Correspondence to Pontus Odmalm.

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Odmalm, P., Super, B. If the issue fits, stay put: Cleavage stability, issue compatibility and drastic changes on the immigration ‘issue’. Comp Eur Polit 12, 663–679 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1057/cep.2014.24

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Keywords

  • immigration
  • populist radical right
  • mainstream parties
  • manifestos
  • Sweden
  • The Netherlands