Business Economics

, Volume 51, Issue 1, pp 11–17 | Cite as

Economic Implications of Demographic Change: Diversity Dividend or Deficit?

  • Marta Tienda
Original Article


The economic implications of demographic change depend on steadfast investments in research and development; replenishment of the human capital stock diminished by retiring Baby Boomers; and raising college attainment rates. This way the United States can leverage its diverse, fast-growing population to harness a demographic dividend—the productivity boost enabled by declining fertility—while also fueling economic growth, restocking the Social Security system, and bolstering global competitiveness.


demographic dividend population diversification generational transition human capital stock 



I would like to thank Cara Carpenito for her technical support in preparing the presentation and the manuscript.


  1. Aud, S., W. Hussar, F. Johnson, G. Kena, E. Roth, E. Manning, X. Wang and J. Zhang . 2012. The Condition of Education 2012. Washington D.C.: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Statistics).Google Scholar
  2. Demos, 2011. The State of Young America: The Databook. Demos and The Young Invincibles. (accessed October 23, 2014).
  3. Frey, William H. 2015. Diversity Explosion: How New Racial Demographics are Remaking America. Brookings Institution Press.Google Scholar
  4. Gordon, Robert J. 2013. “The Great Stagnation of American Education.” New York Times, Opinion Pages (September 7).Google Scholar
  5. Gribble, James N. 2012. “South Korea’s Demographic Dividend.” Population Reference Bureau, (accessed July 30, 2014).
  6. Howden, Lindsay M., and Julie A. Meyer . 2011. Age and Sex Composition: 2010. U.S. Department of Commerce Economics and Statistics Administration, U.S. Census Bureau.Google Scholar
  7. Humes, Karen R., Nicholas A. Jones and Roberto R. Ramirez . 2011. Overview of Race and Hispanic Origin: 2010. U.S. Census Bureau.Google Scholar
  8. Lutz, Wolfgang, William P. Butz and Samir K.C . 2014. World Population & Human Capital in the Twenty-first Century. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
  9. National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), 2014. Actual and Projected Numbers for Enrollment in Public Elementary and Secondary Schools, by Race/Ethnicity: Fall 1997 through Fall 2022. Projections of Education Statistics to 2022, Table 3 (41st Edition).Google Scholar
  10. OECD, 2012. Education at a Glance 2012: OECD Indicators. OECD Publishing, (accessed October 23, 2014).
  11. OECD.Stat, 2015. GERD as a Percentage of GDP. OECD Publishing,
  12. Pew Hispanic Center, 2006. From 200 Million to 300 Million: The Numbers Behind Population Growth. Pew Hispanic Center.Google Scholar
  13. Social Explorer, 2010. Data Dictionary: Census 2010. Social Explorer.Google Scholar
  14. Tienda, Marta and Faith Mitchell edited by. 2006. Multiple Origins, Uncertain Destinies: Hispanics and the American Future. National Academy Press.Google Scholar
  15. U.S. Census Bureau, 1901. Census of the United States, 1900. Department of the Interior.Google Scholar
  16. U.S. Census Bureau, 1953. Census of the United States, 1950. U.S. Census Bureau).Google Scholar
  17. U.S. Census Bureau, 1973. Census of the United States, 1970. U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.Google Scholar
  18. U.S. Census Bureau, 1992. 1990 Census of Population, General Population Characteristics, United States. U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.Google Scholar
  19. Ruggles, S., Katie Genadek, Ronald Goeken, Josiah Grover and Matthew Sobek . 2010. Educational Attainment – 2010 American Community Survey 1 Year Estimates. Integrated Public Use Microdata Series: Version 6.0 [Machine-readable database]. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota.Google Scholar
  20. UNESCO Institute for Statistics, 2015. Expenditure on Education as % of GDP (from government sources). UNESCO (accessed March 25, 2015).
  21. U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, 1976. Annual Report of the Commissioner of Education Fiscal Year 1975. Washington DC: U.S. GPO.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© National Association for Business Economics 2016

Authors and Affiliations

  • Marta Tienda

There are no affiliations available

Personalised recommendations