Advertisement

European Political Science

, Volume 17, Issue 3, pp 378–403 | Cite as

the electoral payoff of immigration flows for anti-immigration parties: the case of Italy’s Lega Nord

  • gabriele abbondanzaEmail author
  • francesco bailo
Research
First Online:

Abstract

The aim of this article is to examine and quantify the relationship between regular immigration and voting for anti-immigration parties in Italy’s eight Northern regions – from 1992 to 2015 – and in Italy’s forty-five Northern provinces from 2004 to 2015. Firstly, we identified the Lega Nord as Italy’s main xenophobic party, then we used a fixed effects regression model for panel data to test our hypothesis, while controlling for a series of social, political and economic variables. Our results suggest that there is a positive and significant effect: an increase of 1 per cent in the number of new regular immigrants is associated with an increase of more than 2 per cent in the votes given to the Lega Nord; voter-turnout is significantly and negatively associated with Lega Nord’s vote-share, and a high perception of crime – but not actual crime – is positively associated with anti-immigration votes. At the provincial level, we also found a positive association between Muslim foreign population and Lega Nord’s vote-share. These results ought to be considered along with the fact that Northern Italy is highly representative of the wealthiest and most densely populated regions of Europe, suggesting the possibility that similar phenomena could be witnessed in other comparable contexts.

Keywords

euroscepticism and the European Union far-right politics political parties and electoral behaviour 
This is a preview of subscription content, log in to check access.

Notes

Acknowledgements

The authors wish to thank co-editor Associate Professor Daniel Stockemer and the anonymous reviewers of EPS for their helpful comments on this study.

References

  1. Abbondanza, G. (2015) ‘Nuove forme di politica migratoria’, Eurasia 12(1): 191–202.Google Scholar
  2. Albertazzi, D. and McDonnell, D. (2010) ‘The Lega Nord back in government’, West European Politics 33(6): 1318–40.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Akkerman, T. (2012) ‘The impact of radical right parties in government: A comparative analysis of immigration and integration policies in nine countries (1996–2010)’, West European Politics 35(3): 511–29.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Akkerman, T., de Lange, S. L. and Rooduijn, M. (2016) Radical Right-Wing Populist Parties in Western Europe: Into the Mainstream?, London: Routledge.Google Scholar
  5. Apaydin, F. (2016) ‘The supranational dimension of voting in national elections across six European democracies: Rethinking Albert Hirschman’s exit, voice and loyalty’, European Political Science 15(1): 73–88.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Arzheimer, K. (2009) ‘Contextual factors and the extreme-right vote in Western Europe, 1980–2002’, American Journal of Political Science 53(2): 259–275.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Blalock, H.M. (1967) Toward a Theory of Minority-Group Relations, New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
  8. Bohman, A. (2011) ‘Articulated antipathies: Political influence on anti-immigrant attitudes’, International Journal of Comparative Sociology 52(6): 457–77.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Brading, R. (2015) ‘Is European populism alive and kicking?’, European Political Science 14(3): 369–73.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Brunet, R. (1989) Les villes europeénnes: Rapport pour la DATAR, Montpellier: Reclus.Google Scholar
  11. Cento Bull, A. (2009) ‘Lega Nord: A case of simulative politics?’, South European Society and Politics 14(2): 129–46.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Cento Bull, A. (2010) ‘Addressing contradictory needs: The Lega Nord and Italian immigration policy’, Patterns of Prejudice 44(5): 411–\31.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Colombo, A. and Sciortino, G. (2004) ‘Italian immigration: The origins, nature and evolution of Italy’s migratory systems’, Journal of Modern Italian Studies 9(1): 49–70.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Croissant, Y. and Millo, G. (2008) ‘Panel data econometrics in R: The plm Package’, Journal of Statistical Software 27(2): 1–43.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Dinas, E. and van Spanje, J. (2011) ‘Crime story: The role of crime and immigration in the anti-immigration vote’, Electoral Studies 30(4): 658–71.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. European Parliament (2015) Irregular Immigration in the EU: Facts and Figures, available at http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2015/554202/EPRS_BRI(2015)554202_EN.pdf, accessed 30 March 2016.
  17. Fella, S. and Ruzza, C. (2009) Re-inventing the Italian Right: Territorial Politics, Populism and ‘Post-Fascism’, London: Routledge, p. 93.Google Scholar
  18. Finotelli, C. and Sciortino, G. (2009) ‘The importance of being Southern: the making of policies of immigration control in Italy’, European Journal of Migration and Law 11(2): 119–38.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Geddes, A. (2008) ‘Il rombo dei cannoni? Immigration and the centre-right in Italy’, Journal of European Public Policy 15(3): 349–66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Green, D.P., Strolovitch, D.Z. and Wong, J.S. (1998). ‘Defended neighborhoods, integration, and racially motivated crime’, American Journal of Sociology 104(2): 372–403.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Hospers G.-J. (2003) ‘Beyond the blue banana? Structural change in Europe’s geo–economy’, Intereconomics 38(2): 76–85.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Huysseune, M. (2006) Modernity and Secession: The Social Sciences and the Political Discourse of the Lega nord in Italy, New York: Berghahn Books, p. 190.Google Scholar
  23. Immerzeel, T. and Pickup, M. (2015) ‘Populist radical right parties mobilizing “the people”? The role of populist radical right success in voter turnout’, Electoral Studies 40: 347–60.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Kurth, J. and Petras, J. (1993) Mediterranean Paradoxes: Politics and Social Structures in Southern Europe, Oxford: Berg, p. 17.Google Scholar
  25. Massey, S. and Coluccello, R. (2015) ‘Introduction’. in S. Massey and E. Coluccello (eds) Eurafrican Migration: Legal, Economic and Social Responses to Irregular Migration, London: Palgrave Macmillan, pp. 1–11.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Mayda, A.M. (2004) Who Is Against Immigration? A Cross-Country Investigation of Individual Attitudes Toward Immigrants, Bonn: IZA, pp. 1–57.Google Scholar
  27. Meijers, M.J. (2015) ‘Contagious Euroscepticism: the impact of Eurosceptic support on mainstream party positions on European integration’, Party Politics advance online publication 22 September, doi:  10.1177/1354068815601787.
  28. Minkenberg, M. (2003) ‘The West European radical right as a collective actor: Modeling the impact of cultural and structural variables on party formation and movement mobilization’, Comparative European Politics 1(2): 149–70.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Mudde, C. (1999) ‘The single‐issue party thesis: Extreme right parties and the immigration issue’, West European Politics 22(3): 182–97.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Mudde, C. (2010) ‘The populist radical right: a pathological normalcy’, West European Politics 33(6): 1167–86.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. OECD (2006) OECD Territorial Reviews: Milan, Italy 2006, Paris: OECD Publishing, p. 11.Google Scholar
  32. Perlmutter, T. (2002) ‘The politics of restriction – The effect of xenophobic parties on Italian immigration policy and German asylum policy’, in M. Schain, A. Zolberg and P. Hossay (eds) Shadows Over Europe – The Development and Impact of the Extreme-Right in Western Europe, London: Palgrave Macmillan, pp. 269–98.Google Scholar
  33. Perrineau, P. (1985) ‘Le Front national: un électorat autoritaire’, Revue politique et parlementaire 87(918): 24–31.Google Scholar
  34. R Core Team. (2015) R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing, available at https://cran.r-project.org/doc/manuals/r-release/fullrefman.pdf, accessed 30 March 2016.
  35. Ramet, S. (1999), ‘Defining the radical right: Values and behaviors of organized intolerance in post-communist Central and Eastern Europe’, in S. Ramet (ed.) The Radical Right in Central and Eastern Europe since 1989, Philadelphia: Pennsylvania State University Press, pp. 3–27.Google Scholar
  36. Roushas, R. (2014) ‘Understanding the electoral breakthrough of Golden Dawn in Greece: A demand and supply perspective’, IMI Working Articles 83: 4–26.Google Scholar
  37. Runciman, W.G. (1966) Relative Deprivation and Social Justice: A Study of Attitudes to Social Inequality in Twentieth-Century England, Oakland: University of California Press.Google Scholar
  38. Rydgren, J. (2007) ‘The sociology of the radical right’, Annual Review of Sociology 33(1): 241–62.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Rydgren, J. and Ruth, P. (2011) ‘Voting for the radical right in Swedish municipalities: social marginality and ethnic competition?’, Scandinavian Political Studies 34(3): 202–25.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Scheepers, P., Gijsberts, M. and Coenders M (2002) ‘Ethnic exclusionism in European countries. Public opposition to civil rights for legal migrants as a response to perceived ethnic threat’, European Sociological Review 18(1): 17–34.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Sengenberger, W. and Campbell D. C. (1994) Creating Economic Opportunities: The Role of Labour Standards in Industrial Restructuring, Geneva: International Institute for Labour Studies, pp. 307–321.Google Scholar
  42. Spektorowski, A. (2003) ‘Ethnoregionalism: the intellectual new right and the Lega Nord’, Global Review of Ethnopolitics 2(3–4): 55–70.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Tajfel, H. (1982) ‘Social psychology of intergroup relations’, Annual Review of Psychology 33(1): 1–39.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Tarchi, M. (2008) ‘Italy: A country of many populisms’, in D. Albertazzi and D. McDonnell (eds) Twenty-First Century Populism: The Spectre of Western European Democracy, Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, p. 97.Google Scholar
  45. UNHCR Italy (2015) Il punto di vista dell’UNHCR: ‘rifugiato’ o ‘migrante’, qual è corretto?, available at https://www.unhcr.it/news/il–punto–di–vista–dellunhcr–rifugiato–o–migrante–qual–e–corretto.html, accessed 30 March 2016.
  46. van Spanje, J. (2010) ‘Contagious parties: Anti-immigration parties and their impact on other parties’ immigration stances in contemporary western Europe’, Party Politics 16(5): 563–86.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Volkens, A., Lehmann, P., Theres, M., Merz, N. and Regel, S. (2016). The Manifesto Data Collection. Manifesto Project (MRG/CMP/MARPOR). Version 2016a, Berlin: Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung.Google Scholar
  48. Wooldridge, J.M. (2010) Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, p. 302.Google Scholar
  49. Zaslove, A. (2006) ‘The politics of immigration: A new electoral dilemma for the right and the left?’, Review of European and Russian Affairs 2(3): 10–36.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Zaslove A. (2011) The Re-invention of the European Radical Right: Populism, Regionalism, and the Italian Lega Nord, Montreal: McGill-Queen’s Press, p. 108.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© European Consortium for Political Research 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Centre for International Security StudiesUniversity of SydneyCamperdownAustralia
  2. 2.Department of Government and International RelationsUniversity of SydneyCamperdownAustralia

Personalised recommendations

Cite article

Buy options