Abstract
To what extent did the 2010 economic crisis in Europe accentuate voters’ perceptual bias of parties’ ideological positions? This article investigates the perceptions of voters concerning the left–right positioning of parties by testing the displacement theory effects. Two moments in time are considered: before and after the economic crisis emerged (2009 and 2014), covering a sample of seven European countries (countries most and least affected by the crisis). It is argued displacement effects have increased after the emergence of the crisis, especially right-wing contrast effects in those countries most affected. Analysis using micro-level data from the European Election Studies (2009–2014) and party-level data from the Chapel Hill experts’ survey (2006–2014) supports the study’s primary argument. The findings presented below show general support for these propositions, making an important contribution regarding applying the displacement theory to different economic contexts, and globally to the study of democratic accountability.
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Notes
The databases of the Eurobarometer are available for consultation and download at the following address: http://www.gesis.org/eurobarometer-data-service/data-access/. Studies ZA5567, ZA5612, ZA5876, and ZA5928, regarding, respectively 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014.
The mean formula weighs dates differently, as 2006 is 3 years from 2009 and 2010 only one. Therefore: [party left–right position in 2009] = [(0.25 * 2006 left–right position) + (0.75 * 2010 left–right position)]. Assuming the tendency for party ideological stability over time (Budge 1994), which implies that when changes occur they are gradual, using that formula we expected to reach a close position to the parties’ real positions in 2009.
As the economic crisis emerged in Greece toward the end of 2009, followed by the burst of the crisis in Ireland, still in 2009, and then in Portugal in the beginning of 2010 (and in Spain afterward), the assessment of parties’ positions by experts using data from 2010 is not free from contamination from the effects of the crisis in these countries. We expect, however, that such contamination is low. The full effects of the crisis were only felt after the agreements for external assistance were signed and the subsequent implementation of austerity programs (agreements were signed in May 2010 in Greece, in November 2010 in Ireland, and in May 2011 in Portugal). Considering that the reaction to party changes is not likely to be immediate (as discussed by Fortunato and Stevenson 2013, pp. 460–461, regarding the public in general), we may expect that the contamination of 2010 is not likely to be significant enough to undermine the use of these data.
Generally speaking, the difference between the perception the voters have regarding the position of the party and their own position (in the diagonal, shaded, second line in Tables A1–A7 in the Online Appendix) tends to be negative for the parties of the left and positive for the parties of the right, which means that in both cases voters tend to localize themselves in more central positions than their perception of their party.
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Belchior, A.M. Political parties in troubled times: economic crisis and voter’s perceptual bias of parties’ ideology in Europe. Comp Eur Polit 18, 171–189 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41295-019-00167-4
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/s41295-019-00167-4