When who and how matter: explaining the success of referendums in Europe

Original Article
First Online:
  • 40 Downloads

Abstract

This article aims to identify the institutional factors that make a referendum successful. This comparative analysis seeks to explain the success of top-down referendums organized in Europe between 2001 and 2013. It argues and tests for the main effect of three institutional factors (popularity of the initiator, size of parliamentary majority, and political cues during referendum campaigns) and controls for the type of referendum and voter turnout. The analysis uses data collected from referendums and electoral databases, public opinion surveys, and newspaper articles. Results show that referendums proposed by a large parliamentary majority or with clear messages from political parties during campaign are likely to be successful.

Keywords

Referendum Success Initiator Party cues Europe 
This is a preview of subscription content, log in to check access.

References

  1. Atikcan, Ece Özlem. 2015. Framing the European Union: The Power of Political Arguments in Shaping European Integration. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Batory, Agnes. 2007. Euroscepticism in the Hungarian party system: Voices from the wilderness? In Opposing Europe?: The Comparative Party Politics of Euroscepticism Volume 1: Case Studies and Country Surveys, ed. Aleks Szczerbiak, and Paul Taggart, 263–276. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
  3. Beramendi, Virginia, Andrew Ellis, Bruno Kaufman, Miriam Kornblith, Larry LeDuc, Paddy McGuire, Theo Schiller, and Palle Svensson. 2008. Direct Democracy. The International IDEA Handbook. Stockholm: International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance.Google Scholar
  4. Dalton, Russell J. 2008. Citizen Politics. Public Opinion and Political Parties in Advanced Industrial Democracies. 5th ed. Washington DC: CQ Press.Google Scholar
  5. Dalton, Russell J., Bruce E. Cain, and Susan E. Scarrow. 2003. Democratic Publics and Democratic Institutions. In Democracy Transformed?, ed. Bruce E. Cain, Russell J. Dalton, and Susan E. Scarrow, 250–275. Oxford: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. de Vreese, Claes H., and Holli A. Semetko. 2004. Political Campaigning in Referendums. Framing the Referendum Issue. London and New York: Routledge.Google Scholar
  7. Drath, Viola. 2010. The Cyprus Referendum: An Island Divided by Mutual Distrust. American Foreign Policy Interests 26(4): 341–352.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Font, Joan, and Elisa Rodriguez. 2009. Intense but Useless? Public Debate and Voting Factors in Two Referendums in Spain. In Referendums and Representative Democracy: Responsiveness, Accountability and Deliberation, ed. Maija Setala, and Theo Schiller, 162–185. London and New York: Routledge.Google Scholar
  9. Franklin, Mark, Michael Marsh, and Christopher Wlezien. 1994. Attitudes Toward Europe and Referendum Votes: A Response to Siune and Svensson. Electoral Studies 13(2): 117–121.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Franklin, Mark. 2002. Learning from the Danish Case: A Comment on Palle Svensson’s Critique of the Franklin Thesis. European Journal of Political Research 41(6): 751–757.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Franklin, Mark, Cees van der Eijk, and Michael Marsh. 1995. Referendum Outcomes and Trust in Government: Public Support for Europe in the Wake of Maastricht. West European Politics 18(3): 101–117.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Garry, John, Michael Marsh, and Richard Sinnott. 2005. ‘Second-Order’ Versus ‘Issue-Voting’ Effects in EU Referendums: Evidence from the Irish Nice Treaty Referendums. European Union Politics 6(2): 201–221.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Geissel, Brigitte, and Kenneth Newton (eds.). 2012. Evaluating Democratic Innovations: Curing the Democratic Malaise?. London: Routledge.Google Scholar
  14. Gilland, Lutz, Karin, and Simon Hug (eds.). 2009. Financing Referendum Campaigns. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.Google Scholar
  15. Hobolt, Sara B. 2007. Taking Cues on Europe? Voter Competence and Party Endorsements in Referendums on European Integration. European Journal of Political Research 46(2): 151–182.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Hobolt, Sara Binzer. 2009. Europe in Question. Referendums on European Integration. Oxford: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Hug, Simon. 2003. Voices of Europe: Citizens, Referendums, and European Integration. Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield.Google Scholar
  18. Joas, Marko. 2013. “Conclusions. An Evaluation of Democratic Innovations in Europe.” In Participatory Democratic Innovations in Europe. Improving the Quality of Democracy?, 249–262.Google Scholar
  19. Kriesi, Hanspeter. 2005. Direct Democratic Choice. The Swiss Experience. Plymouth: Lexington Books.Google Scholar
  20. Kriesi, Hanspeter. 2012a. Direct Democracy: Swiss Experience. In Evaluating Democratic Innovations, Curing the Democratic Malaise?, ed. Brigitte Geissel, and Kenneth Newton, 39–55. London and New York: Routledge.Google Scholar
  21. Kriesi, Hanspeter (ed.). 2012b. Political Communication in Direct Democratic Campaigns. Enlightening or Manipulating?. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.Google Scholar
  22. Lachat, Romain, and Pascal Sciarini. 2002. When Do Election Campaigns Matter, and to Whom? Results from the 1999 Swiss Election Panel Study. In Do Political Campaigns Matter? Campaign Effects in Elections and Referendums, ed. David M. Farrell, and Rudiger Schmitt-Beck, 41–57. London and New York: Routledge.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Lacy, Dean, and Emerson M.S. Niou. 2000. A Problem with Referendums. Journal of Theoretical Politics 12(1): 5–31.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. LeDuc, Lawrence. 2002. Referendums and Elections: How Do Campaigns Differ? In Do Political Campaigns Matter? Campaign Effects in Elections and Referendums, ed. David M. Farrell, and Rudiger Schmitt-Beck, 145–162. London and New York: Routledge.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. LeDuc, Lawrence. 2003. The Politics of Direct Democracy: Referendums in Global Perspective. Toronto: Broadview Press.Google Scholar
  26. LeDuc, Lawrence. 2009. Campaign Tactics and Outcomes in Referendum. In Referendums and Representative Democracy, ed. Maija Setala, and Theo Schiller, 139–161. London and New York: Routledge.Google Scholar
  27. Lupia, Arthur. 1994. Shortcuts Versus Encyclopedias: Information and Voting Behavior in California Insurance Reform Elections. American Political Science Review 88(1): 63–76.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Luthardt, Wolfgang. 1994. Direkte Demokratie: Ein Vergleich in Westeuropa. Baden-Baden: Nomos.Google Scholar
  29. Marcinkowski, Frank. 2007. Beyond Information and Opinion. The Importance of Public Communication in the Referendum Process. In Direct Democracy in Europe: Developments and Prospects, ed. Zoltan Tibor Pallinger, Bruno Kaufmann, Wilfried Marxer, and Theo Schiller, 94–107. Wiesbaden: VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Marxer, Wilfried, Zoltan Tibor Pallinger, Bruno Kaufmann, and Theo Schiller. 2007. Foreword. In Direct Democracy in Europe: Developments and Prospects, ed. Zoltan Tibor Pallinger, Bruno Kaufmann, Wilfried Marxer, and Theo Schiller, 7–11. Wiesbaden: VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften.Google Scholar
  31. McAllister, Ian. 2002. Calculating or Capricious? The New Politics of Late Deciding Voters. In Do Political Campaigns Matter? Campaign Effects in Elections and Referendums, ed. David M. Farrell, and Rudiger Schmitt-Beck, 22–40. London and New York: Routledge.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Mendez, Fernando, Mario Mendez, and Vasiliki Triga. 2014. Referendums and the European Union: A Comparative Inquiry. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Newton, Kenneth. 2012. Curing the Democratic Malaise with Democratic Innovations. In Evaluating Democratic Innovations. Curing the Democratic Malaise?, ed. Brigitte Geissel, and Kenneth Newton, 3–20. London: Routledge.Google Scholar
  34. Norris, Pippa. 2011. Democratic Deficit: Critical Citizens Revisited. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Qvortrup, Matt. 2005. A Comparative Study of Referendums. Manchester: Manchester University Press.Google Scholar
  36. Qvortrup, Matt. 2016. Referendums on Membership and European Integration 1972–2015. The Political Quarterly 87(1): 61–68.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Reif, Karlheinz, and Herman Schmitt. 1980. Nine Second-Order National Elections—A Conceptual Framework for the Analysis of European Elections Results. European Journal of Political Research 8(1): 3–44.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Sager, Fritz, and Marc Buehlmann. 2009. Checks and Balances in Swiss Direct Democracy. In Referendums and Representative Democracy: Responsiveness, Accountability and Deliberation, ed. Maija Setala, and Theo Schiller, 186–206. London and New York: Routledge.Google Scholar
  39. Schmitt-Beck, Rudiger, and David M. Farrell. 2002. Studying Political Campaigns and Their Effects. In Do Political Campaigns Matter? Campaign Effects in Elections and Referendums, ed. David M. Farrell, and Rudiger Schmitt-Beck, 1–21. London and New York: Routledge.Google Scholar
  40. Setala, Maija. 2009. Introduction. In Referendums and Representative Democracy. Responsiveness, Accountability and Deliberation, ed. Maija Setala, and Theo Schiller, 1–10. London and New York: Routledge/ECPR.Google Scholar
  41. Setala, Maija. 2013. Deliberation and Aggregation in Different Forms of Direct Democracy. In Participatory Democratic Innovations in Europe: Improving the Quality of Democracy?, ed. Brigitte Geissel, and Marko Joas, 179–197. Opladen: Barbara Budrich.Google Scholar
  42. Setala, Maija, and Theo Schiller (eds.). 2012. Citizens’ Initiatives in Europe: Procedures and Consequences of Agenda-Setting by Citizens. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.Google Scholar
  43. Siune, Karen, and Palle Svensson. 1993. The Danes and the Maastricht Treaty: The Danish EC Referendum of June 1992. Electoral Studies 12(2): 99–111.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Siune, Karen, Palle Svensson, and Ole Tonsgaard. 1994. The European Union: The Danes Said ‘no’ in 1992 but ‘yes’ in 1995: How and Why? Electoral Studies 13(2): 107–116.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. Svensson, Palle. 2007. Voting Behaviour in the European Constitution Process. In Direct Democracy in Europe: Developments and Prospects, ed. Zoltän Tibor Pallinger, Bruno Kaufmann, Wilfried Marxer, and Theo Schiller, 163–173. Wiesbaden: VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Szczerbiak, Aleks, and Paul Taggart. 2004. The Politics of European Referendum Outcomes and Turnout: Two Models. West European Politics 27(4): 557–583.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Trechsel, Alexander H., and Pascal Sciarini. 1998. Direct Democracy in Switzerland: Do Elites Matter? European Journal of Political Research 33(1): 99–124.Google Scholar
  48. Walker, Mark Clarence. 2003. The Strategic Use of Referendums: Power, Legitimacy, and Democracy. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Williams, George, and David Hume. 2010. People Power: The History and Future of the Referendum in Australia. Sydney: University of New South Wales Press Ltd.Google Scholar
  50. Zaller, John R. 1992. The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Macmillan Publishers Ltd 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of Political ScienceAbo Akademi UniversityTurkuFinland
  2. 2.Department of PoliticsUniversity of GlasgowGlasgowUK

Personalised recommendations