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The impact of economic and political factors on popularity in France (1981–2017)

  • Antoine AubergerEmail author
Original Article
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Abstract

In this article, we study a popularity function for the popularity of the French political parties (1981Q2–2017Q1). At first, we suppose that voters have a retrospective behaviour according to the reward-punishment model in a closed economy. We show that the unemployment rate has a significant influence on the popularity of the French political parties and find unfavourable results for the partisan hypothesis. The analysis also indicates that economic openness has an influence on popularity, thus a partly expected result for the asymmetry hypothesis: punishment without any reward. For the political variables, significant influence of the honeymoon effect, the second-order elections (regional or European) and the congresses of the Socialist party are also found to be significant.

Keywords

Popularity functions Voters’ behaviour Economic situation Political variables Econometric models 

Notes

Acknowledgements

Many thanks to Robert Elgie for his interest and support as well as to Amy Mazur and the reviewer. John Wisdom’s was a great help on the English fluency of this piece.

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Copyright information

© Springer Nature Limited 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.CREDUniversity of Paris 2ParisFrance

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