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A Le Pen Vote Function for the 2002 Presidential Election: A Way to Reduce Uncertainty

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Abstract

Since 1984, the unknown factor in French political life has been the support for the National Front. More than ever, on April 21, 2002, the leader of the FN, Jean-Marie Le Pen demonstrated. In our research note, we try to explain the way of reducing uncertainty in building and forecasting a FN vote function (pooled time series) from decentralized economic and political data. Undeniably, the support for the FN varies across regions in a more subtle way than might have been expected.

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Jérôme, B., Jérôme-Speziari, V. A Le Pen Vote Function for the 2002 Presidential Election: A Way to Reduce Uncertainty. Fr Polit 1, 247–251 (2003). https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.fp.8200036

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Keywords

  • election forecasting
  • economic voting
  • National Front