Controlling infectious disease outbreaks: Lessons from mathematical modelling
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Epidemiological analysis and mathematical models are now essential tools in understanding the dynamics of infectious diseases and in designing public health strategies to contain them. They have provided fundamental concepts, such as the basic and effective reproduction number, generation times, epidemic growth rates, and the role of pre-symptomatic infectiousness, which are crucial in characterising infectious diseases. These concepts are outlined and their relevance in designing control policies for outbreaks is discussed. They are illustrated using examples from the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak, which was brought under control within a year, and from pandemic influenza planning, where mathematical models have been used extensively.
Keywordspandemic influenza SARS mathematical model
The author would like to thank Roy Anderson, Ruth Chapman, Neil Ferguson, Christophe Fraser and Nicholas Grassly for helpful discussions, and Tom Johnston for assistance with Figure 1 and gratefully acknowledges funding from the EU Sixth Framework Programme for research for policy support (SARSTRANS, contact SP22-CT-2004-511066).
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