Advertisement

Higher Education Policy

, Volume 27, Issue 1, pp 85–109 | Cite as

Leading Indicators: Increasing Statewide Bachelor’s Degree Completion Rates at 4-Year Public Institutions

  • Jeffrey Cody Davidson
Article
First Online:

Abstract

For the United States to maintain national and global economic stability, colleges must graduate more students. Four-year completion rates have declined and less than one-third of full-time, degree-seeking students graduate in 4 years. Some researchers and policymakers have suggested ‘leading indicators’ to track postsecondary educational achievement. This study examined the relationship between pre-college factors (e.g., socio-economic status, college readiness, race/ethnicity, etc.), leading indicators (e.g., earning 30 credits at the end of year one, continuous enrolment, summer course credit, etc.) and degree completion at Kentucky’s 4-year public institutions. The results showed that the effects of some leading indicators varied based on pre-college factors. Overall, factors related to credit accumulation had the most impact on the likelihood of increasing graduation rates. Policy and practice should consider the impact of pre-college factors on the effectiveness of leading indicators to most efficiently increase degree completion rates.

Keywords

academic degrees bachelor degrees college credits higher education public colleges undergraduate study 
This is a preview of subscription content, log in to check access.

References

  1. Adelman, C. (1999) Answers in the Toolbox: Academic Intensity, Attendance Patterns, and Bachelor’s Degree Attainment, Washington DC: US Department of Education.Google Scholar
  2. Ashby, C.M. (2003) College Completion: Additional Efforts Could Help Education With Its Completion Goals, Washington DC: General Accounting Office, US Department of Education.Google Scholar
  3. Astin, A.W. (1984) ‘Student involvement: A developmental theory for higher education’, Journal of College Student Personnel 25 (4): 297–307.Google Scholar
  4. Astin, A.W. (1997) ‘How ‘good’ is your institution’s retention rate?’, Research in Higher Education 38 (6): 647–659.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Attewell, P., Heil, S. and Reisel, L. (2011) ‘Competing explanations of undergraduate noncompletion’, American Educational Research Journal 48 (3): 536–559.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Auburn University (2008) Factors Related To Timely Degree Completion, Auburn, AL: Office of Institutional Research and Assessment, Auburn University, Retrieved on 6 June 2013 from http://www.auburn.edu/academic/provost/pdf/Appendix_B_Factors_Related_to_Timely_Degree_Completion.pdf.
  7. Auguste, B.G., Cota, A., Jayaram, K. and Laboissiere, M.C.A. (2010) Winning By Degrees: The Strategies Of Highly Productive Higher-Education Institutions, USA: McKinsey & Company, Retrieved on 6 June 2013 from http://www.riosalado.edu/web/selfStudy/Rio%20SaladoCollege%20Self-Study%202012/Resource%20Room%20Documents/Self-Study%20Introduction/WinningbyDegrees.pdf.Google Scholar
  8. Baum, S., Ma, J. and Payea, K. (2010) Education Pays 2010. The Benefits of Higher Education For Individuals And Society, USA: The College Board, Retrieved on 6 June 2013 from http://advocacy.collegeboard.org/sites/default/files/Education_Pays_2010.pdf.Google Scholar
  9. Bean, J.P. and Metzner, B.S. (1985) A conceptual model of nontraditional undergraduate student attrition, Review of Educational Research 55 (4): 485–540.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Bearer-Friend, J. (2009) Issue Brief: Measuring Student Achievement at Postsecondary Institutions, Washington DC: NGA Center for Best Practices, Retrieved on 6 June 2013 from http://www.nga.org/files/live/sites/NGA/files/pdf/0911MEASURINGACHIEVEMENT.PDF.Google Scholar
  11. Bowerman, B.L. and O’Connell, R.T. (1990) Linear Statistical Models: An Applied Approach, 2nd edn, Belmont, CA: Duxbury.Google Scholar
  12. Braxton, J.M., Sullivan, A.S. and Johnson, R.T. (1997) ‘Appraising Tinto’s Theory of College Student Departure’, in J.C. Smart (ed.) Higher Education: Handbook of Theory And Research, New York: Agathon, pp. 107–158.Google Scholar
  13. Buchmann, C. and DiPrete, T.A. (2006) ‘The growing female advantage in college completion: The role of family background and academic achievement’, American Sociological Review 71 (4): 515–541.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Byun, S., Irvin, M.J. and Meece, J.L. (2012) ‘Predictors of bachelor’s degree completion among rural students at four-year institutions’, The Review of Higher Education 35 (3): 463–484.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Cabrera, A.F., Burkum, K.R. and La Nasa, S.M. (2003) Pathways to a Four-Year Degree: Determinants of Degree Completion among Socioeconomically Disadvantaged Students. Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Association for the Study of Higher Education; 13-16 November, Portland, OR, USA. Retrieved on 6 June 2013 from http://www.eric.ed.gov/PDFS/ED482160.pdf.
  16. Calcagno, J.C., Crosta, P., Bailey, T. and Jenkins, D. (2006) Stepping stones to a degree: The impact of enrollment pathways and milestones on community college student outcomes. CCRC Working Paper No. 4. New York, NY: Columbia University, Teachers College, Community College Research Center.Google Scholar
  17. California State University (2010) Using Data for Decision: Beyond Retention and Graduation Rates toward Leading Indicators of Student Success, Los Angeles: California State University, Retrieved on 6 June 2013 from http://www.calstatela.edu/academic/aa/gradinitiatives/Leading%20Indicators%20062010.pdf.
  18. Camburn, E.M. (1990) ‘College completion among students from high schools located in large metropolitan areas’, American Journal of Education 98 (4): 551–569.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Carey, K. (2004) A Matter Of Degrees: Improving Graduation Rates in Four-Year Colleges and Universities, Washington DC: The Education Trust, Retrieved on 6 June 2013 from http://www.cherrycommission.org/docs/Resources/Completion/A%20Matter%20of%20Degrees.pdf.Google Scholar
  20. Carey, K. (2005a) One Step from the Finish Line: Higher College Graduation Rates Are Within Our Reach, Washington DC: The Education Trust, Received on 6 June 2013 from http://www.edtrust.org/sites/edtrust.org/files/publications/files/one_step_from.pdf.Google Scholar
  21. Carey, K. (2005b) Choosing to Improve: Voices from Colleges and Universities with Better Graduation Rates, Washington DC: The Education Trust, Retrieved on 6 June 2013 from http://www.edtrust.org/sites/edtrust.org/files/publications/files/Choosing_to_improve.pdf.Google Scholar
  22. Carnevale, A.P., Smith, N. and Strohl, J. (2010) Help Wanted. Projections of Jobs and Education Requirements through 2018, Washington DC: Georgetown University, Retrieved on 6 June 2013 from http://www9.georgetown.edu/grad/gppi/hpi/cew/pdfs/FullReport.pdf.Google Scholar
  23. Chen, X. and Carroll, C.D. (2005) First Generation Students in Postsecondary Education: A Look at Their College Transcripts, Washington DC: National Center for Education Statistics, Retrieved on 6 June 2013 from http://nces.ed.gov/pubs2005/2005171.pdf.Google Scholar
  24. Cook, B. and Pullaro, N. (2010) College Graduation Rates: Behind the Numbers, Washington DC: American Council on Education Center for Policy Analysis, Retrieved on 6 June 2013 from http://www.acenet.edu/news-room/Documents/College-Graduation-Rates-Behind-the-Numbers.pdf.Google Scholar
  25. DeAngelo, L., Franke, R., Hurtado, S., Pryor, J.H. and Tran, S. (2011) Completing College: Assessing Graduation Rates at Four-Year Institutions, Los Angeles, CA: Higher Education Research Institute, UCLA, Retrieved on 6 June 2013 from http://heri.ucla.edu/DARCU/CompletingCollege2011.pdf.Google Scholar
  26. DesJardins, S.L. (2001) A Comment on Interpreting Odds-Ratios when Logistic Regression Coefficients Are Negative, Tallahassee, FL: Association for Institutional Research, Retrieved on 6 June 2013 from http://airweb3.org/airpubs/81.pdf.Google Scholar
  27. DesJardins, S.L., Ahlburg, D.A. and McCall, B.P. (2002) ‘A temporal investigation of factors related to timely degree completion’, The Journal of Higher Education 73 (5): 555–581.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. DiPrete, T.A. and Buchmann, C. (2006) Gender-specific trends in the value of education and the emerging gender gap in college completion, Demography 43 (1): 1–24.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Dooris, M.J., Guidos, M. and Stine, M. (2007) Looking beyond access: Academic ability, ability to pay, and degree completion. Paper presented at the Association for Institutional Research Annual Forum; 2-6 June, Kansas City, MO, USA. Retrieved on 6 June 2013 from http://www.psu.edu/president/pia/planning_research/reports/AIR_ability_to_pay_paper_07.pdf.
  30. Engle, J. and Lynch, M. (2009) Charting a Necessary Path: The Baseline Report of Public Higher Education Systems in the Access to Success Initiative, Washington DC: The Education Trust, Retrieved on 6 June 2013 from http://www.edtrust.org/sites/edtrust.org/files/publications/files/A2S_BaselineReport_0.pdf.Google Scholar
  31. Engle, J. and O’Brien, C. (2007) Demography is Not Destiny: Increasing the Graduation Rates of Low-Income College Students at Large Public Universities, Washington DC: Council for Opportunity in Education, Retrieved on 6 June 2013 from http://www.diversityweb.org/diversity_innovations/student_ development/recruitment_retention_mentoring/documents/ DemographyisNotDestiny_001.pdf.Google Scholar
  32. Engle, J. and Theokas, C. (2010) Top Gap Closers: Some Public Four-Year Colleges and Universities Have Made Good Progress in Closing Graduation-Rate Gaps, Washington DC: Education Trust, Retrieved on 6 June 2013 from http://www.eric.ed.gov/PDFS/ED511865.pdf.Google Scholar
  33. Ewell, P. (2006) Reaching consensus on common indicators: A feasibility analysis. Paper presented at the State Student Data Project for Bridges and AtD; 10-12 January, San Antonio, TX, USA. Retrieved on 6 June 2013 from http://www.nchems.org/pubs/docs/JFFCommonIndicators.pdf.
  34. Fain, P. (2011a) ‘Completion comes first’, Inside Higher Education. 13 December. Retrieved on 6 June 2013 http://www.insidehighered.com/news/2011/12/13/valencia-college-wins-first-aspen-prize.
  35. Fain, P. (2011b) ‘Behind the billboards’, Inside Higher Education. 14 December. Retrieved on 6 June 2013 from http://www.insidehighered.com/news/2011/12/14/texas-business-groups-billboard-campaign-completion-rates.
  36. Fain, P. (2012) ‘Price of success’, Inside Higher Education, 16 January. Retrieved on 6 June 2013 from http://www.insidehighered.com/news/2012/01/16/improving-graduation-rates-job-one-city-colleges-chicago.
  37. Fields, A. and Miles, J. (2010) Discovering Statistics Using SAS, London: SAGE Publications Ltd.Google Scholar
  38. Foley, E., Mishook, J., Thompson, J., Kubiak, M., Supovitz, J. and Rhude-Faust, M.K. (2008) Beyond Test Scores: Leading Indicators for Education. Annenberg Institute for School Reform, Providence, RI: Brown University, Annenberg Institute for School Reform, Retrieved on 6 June 2013 from http://annenberginstitute.org/pdf/LeadingIndicators.pdf.Google Scholar
  39. Gold, L. and Albert, L. (2006) ‘Graduation rates as a measure of college accountability’, American Academic 2 (1): 89–106 Retrieved on 6 June 2013 from http://www.aft.org/pdfs/highered/academic/march06/Gold.pdf.Google Scholar
  40. Gonzalez, S. (2012) Why it is harder for college students to get financial aid this summer’, State Impact, 14 May. Retrieved on 6 June 2013 from http://stateimpact.npr.org/florida/2012/05/14/why-its-harder-for-college-students-to-get-financial-aid-this-summer/.
  41. Hess, F.M., Schneider, M., Carey, K. and Kelly, A.P. (2009) Diplomas and Dropouts. Which Colleges Actually Graduate Their Students (and Which Don’t). A Project of the American Enterprise Institute. Retrieved on 6 June 2013 from http://docs.gatesfoundation.org/learning/documents/diplomas-dropouts-report.pdf.
  42. Higher Education Research Institution (2005) How ‘Good’ Is Your Retention Rate? Using the CIRP Survey to Evaluate Undergraduate Persistence. (Research Brief), Los Angeles, CA: University of California. Retrieved on 6 June 2013 from http://heri.ucla.edu/PDFs/DARCU_RB.PDF.
  43. Horn, L. and Carroll, C.D. (2006) Placing College Graduation Rates in Context: How 4-Year College Graduation Rates Vary With Selectively and the Size of Low-Income Enrollment, Washington DC: National Center for Education Statistics, Retrieved on 6 June 2013 from http://nces.ed.gov/pubs2007/2007161.pdf.Google Scholar
  44. Ishitani, T.T. (2006) ‘Studying attrition and degree completion behavior among first-generation college students in the united states’, The Journal of Higher Education 77 (5): 861–885.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. Jacobs, J.A. and King, R.B. (2002) ‘Age and college completion: A life-history analysis of women aged 15-44, Sociology of Education 75 (3): 211–230.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Kantrowitz, M. (2009) Analysis of why some students do not apply for financial aid’, FinAid, 28 April. Retrieved on 6 June 2013 from http://www.finaid.org/educators/20090427CharacteristicsOfNonApplicants.pdf.
  47. Kantrowitz, M. (2011) Reasons why students do not file the FAFSA’, FinAid, 18 January. Retrieved on 6 June 2013 from http://www.finaid.org/educators/20110118nofafsareasons.pdf.
  48. Kember, D. (1989) ‘A longitudinal-process model of drop-out from distance education’, The Journal of Higher Education 60 (3): 278–301.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Kiley, K. (2011) ‘Performance anxiety’, Inside Higher Education, 16 December. Retrieved on 6 June 2013 from http://www.insidehighered.com/news/2011/12/16/indiana-revamps-performance-funding-focusing-first-year-completion.
  50. Kiley, K. (2012) ‘Let’s make a deal’, Inside Higher Education, 17 October. Retrieved from http://www.insidehighered.com/news/2012/10/17/public-universities-want-returns-exchange-tuition-freezes.
  51. Kinzie, J. and Kuh, G.D. (2004) Going DEEP. Learning from campuses that share responsibility for student success, About Campus 9 (5): 2–8.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  52. Kuh, G.D. (2001) Assessing what really matters to student learning: Inside the national survey of student engagement, Change 33 (3): 10–17 66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  53. Leinbach, D.T. and Jenkins, D. (2008) Using Longitudinal Data to Increase Community College Students Success: A Guide to Measuring Milestone and Momentum Point Attainment, New York, NY: Community College Research Center Teachers College, Columbia University, Retrieved on 6 June 2013 from http://www.eric.ed.gov/PDFS/ED499922.pdf.Google Scholar
  54. McCormick, A.C. and Carroll, C.D. (1999) Credit Production and Progress Toward the Bachelor’s Degree: An Analysis of Postsecondary Transcripts for Beginning Students at 4-Year Institutions, Washington DC: National Center for Education Statistics, Retrieved on 6 June 2013 from http://nces.ed.gov/pubs99/1999179.pdf.Google Scholar
  55. Martinez, D. (2011) What’s in YOUR Toolbox? Investigating Milestones and Completions at a Local Institution Based on Adelman’s Study, ‘The Toolbox Revisited’, Berkeley, CA: The RP Group, Retrieved on 6 June 2013 from http://www.rpgroup.org/sites/default/files/Martinez-RiversideCCD.pdf.Google Scholar
  56. Menard, S. (1995) Applied Logistic Regression Analysis. Sage University Paper Series on Quantitative Applications in the Social Science 07-106, Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.Google Scholar
  57. Moore, C. and Shulock, N. (2009) Student Progress toward Degree Completion: Lessons from The Research Literature, Sacramento, CA: The Institute for Higher Education Leadership and Policy, Retrieved on 7 June 2013 from http://www.csus.edu/ihelp/PDFs/R_Student_Progress_Toward_Degree_Completion.pdf.Google Scholar
  58. Muraskin, L. and Lee, J. (2004) Raising the Graduation Rates of Low-Income College Students, Washington DC: The Pell Institute for the Study of Opportunity in Higher Education, Retrieved on 7 June 2013 from http://www.luminafoundation.org/publications/PellDec2004.pdf.Google Scholar
  59. Myers, R. (1990) Classical and Modern Regression with Applications, 2nd edn, Boston, MA: Duxbury.Google Scholar
  60. Offenstein, J., Moore, C. and Shulock, N. (2010) Advancing by Degrees: A Framework for Increasing College Completion, Sacramento, CA: The Institute for Higher Education Leadership and Policy, Retrieved on 7 June 2013 from http://www.eric.ed.gov/PDFS/ED511863.pdf.Google Scholar
  61. Offenstein, J. and Shulock, N. (2010) Taking the Next Step: The Promise Of Intermediate Measures for Meeting Postsecondary Completion Goals, Boston, MA: Jobs for the Future, Retreived on 7 June 2013 from http://www.jff.org/sites/default/files/ATD_TakingtheNextStep_092810.pdf.Google Scholar
  62. Office of Management and Budget (2011) Fiscal Year 2012. Terminations, Reductions and Saving: Budget of the U.S. Government, Washington DC: US Government, Retrieved on 7 June 2013 from http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/omb/budget/fy2012/assets/trs.pdf.
  63. Prince, D. and Jenkins, D. (2005) Building pathways to success for low-skill adult students: Lessons for community college policy and practice from a longitudinal student tracking study. CCRC Brief No. 25. New York, NY: Columbia University, Teachers College, Community College Research Center. Retrieved on 7 June 2013 from http://academiccommons.columbia.edu/catalog/ac:157587.
  64. Radford, A.W. and Horn, L. (2012) An Overview of Classes Taken and Credits Earned by Beginning Postsecondary Students, Washington DC: National Center for Education Statistics, Retrieved on 7 June 2013 from http://nces.ed.gov/pubs2013/2013151rev.pdf.Google Scholar
  65. Robinson, R. (2004) Pathways to completion: Patterns of progress through a university degree, Higher Education 47 (1): 1–20.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  66. Russell, A. (2011) A Guide to Major U.S. College Completion Initiatives, Washington DC: American Association of State Colleges and Universities, Retrieved on 7 June 2013 from http://www.aascu.org/policy/publications/policymatters/2011/collegecompletion.pdf.Google Scholar
  67. Smith, M. (2012a) Longhorns who take too long’, Inside Higher Education, 16 February. Retrieved on 7 June 2013 from http://www.insidehighered.com/news/2012/02/16/texas-wants-boost-four-year-graduation-rate-20-points.
  68. Smith, M. (2012b) ‘Doubling down on degrees’, Inside Higher Education, 12 March. Retrieved on 7 June 2013 from http://www.insidehighered.com/news/2012/03/12/republican-backed-plan-aims-double-indianas-college-degrees.
  69. Southern Regional Education Board (2010a) Promoting a Culture of Students Success How Colleges and Universities are Improving Degree Completion, Atlanta, GA: Southern Regional Education Board, Retrieved on 7 June 2013 from http://publications.sreb.org/2010/10E02_Promoting_Culture.pdf.
  70. Southern Regional Education Board (2010b) No Time to Waste. Policy Recommendations for Increasing College Completion, Atlanta, GA: Southern Regional Education Board, Retrieved on 7 June 2013 from http://publications.sreb.org/2010/10E10_No_Time_to_Waste.pdf.
  71. Stevens, J. (2002) Applied Multivariate Statistics for the Social Sciences, 4th edn, Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum.Google Scholar
  72. Taniguchi, H. and Kaufman, G. (2005) ‘Degree completion among nontraditional college students’, Social Science Quarterly 86 (4): 912–927.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  73. Tilsley, A. (2013) ‘A free semester’, Inside Higher Education, 15 January. Retrieved on 7 June 2013 from http://www.insidehighered.com/news/2013/01/15/union-college-offers-free-last-semester-increase-retention-rate.
  74. Tinto, V. (1975) ‘Dropout from higher education: A theoretical synthesis of recent research’, Review of Educational Research 45 (1): 89–125.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  75. Tinto, V. (2002) Enhancing student persistence: Connecting the dots. Paper presented at the Enhancing Student Persistence Conference; 23-25 October, Madison, WI, USA. Retrieved on 7 June 2013 from https://www.ou.edu/content/dam/HousingFood/Documents/PDF%20-%20Research/Connencting%20the%20Dots%20-%20Tinto.pdf.
  76. Tinto, V. (2003) Promoting student retention through classroom practice. Paper presented at Enhancing Student Retention: Using International Policy and Practice Conference; 5-7 November, Amsterdam, The Netherlands. Retrieved on 7 June 2013 from http://www.staffs.ac.uk/access-studies/docs/Amster-paperVT(1).pdf.Google Scholar
  77. Tinto, V. (2005) Student retention: What next? Paper presented at the National Conference on Student Recruitment, Marketing, and Retention; 27-30 July, Washington DC, USA. Retrieved from http://www.gvsu.edu/cms3/assets/B85DAC41-B7B8-3B9F-A116121D5AE29B05/Student%20Retention-What%20Next.pdf.
  78. Titus, M.A. (2006) ‘Understanding college degree completion of students with low socioeconomic status: the influence of the institutional financial context’, Research in Higher Education 47 (4): 371–398.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  79. Tumen, S., Shulruf, S. and Hattie, J. (2008) Student pathways at the university: Patterns and predictors of completion, Studies in Higher Education 33 (3): 233–252.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  80. U.S. Department of Education (2011) College Completion Tool Kit, Washington DC: U.S. Department of Education. Retrieved on 6 June 2013 from http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/college_completion_tool_kit.pdf.
  81. Wild, L. and Ebbers, L. (2002) ‘Rethinking student retention in community colleges’, Community College Journal of Research and Practice 26 (2): 503–519.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© International Association of Universities 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  • Jeffrey Cody Davidson
    • 1
  1. 1.Kentucky Council on Postsecondary EducationFrankfortUSA

Personalised recommendations

Cite article

Buy options