Four rounds in a row: The impact of presidential election outcomes on legislative elections in France
- 11 Downloads
This article focuses on the consequences of presidential election outcomes on legislative election results in the context of the French semi-presidential regime. Through an analysis based on aggregated national- and constituency-level data, it shows that presidential elections do have an impact on legislative elections. Furthermore, this impact is proven to affect the balance between presidential majority and opposition coalitions and between core and fringe parties. The 2000 and 2002 reforms aligning presidential and National Assembly mandates and instituting a situation of repeated honeymoon elections significantly decrease the likelihood of any future period of cohabitation between a president and an Assembly from opposing partisan coalitions. They also foster presidentialization and explain the relative decrease in fragmentation within the party system.
Keywordselection timing France electoral cycle honeymoon/midterm elections semi-presidentialism
- Carcassonne, G. (1995) La primauté de l’élection présidentielles. In: N. Wahl and J.-L. Quermonne (eds.) La France présidentielle: L’influence du suffrage universel sur la vie politique. Paris: Presses de Sciences Po, pp. 31–45.Google Scholar
- Dolez, B. and Laurent, A. (2009) Strategic voting in legislative majority runoff elections in a semi-presidential system. The 2007 French legislative elections (mimeo).Google Scholar
- Sauger, N. (2009) The French party system: Fifty years of change. In: S. Brouard, A. Appleton, and A. Mazur (eds.) The Fifth Republic at Fifty. London: Palgrave, pp. 79–98.Google Scholar
- Smith, A. (2004) Election Timing. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar