Multiple guesses from one individual, like guesses from a crowd, yield a better estimate when averaged. How far can such solipsistic polling take us in real, high-stakes settings? Now 1.2 million incentivized, real-world guesses show just how much people can improve their judgements by reconsidering their own estimates.
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Vul, E. Pulling guesses up by their bootstraps. Nat Hum Behav 2, 15–16 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-017-0280-5
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-017-0280-5
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