Scenarios are the primary tool for examining how current decisions shape the future, but the future is affected as much by out-of-ordinary extremes as by generally expected trends. Energy modellers can study extremes both by incorporating them directly within models and by using complementary off-model analyses.
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Acknowledgements
D.L.M. acknowledges A. Grubler, K. Riahi, V. Krey and N. Nakicenovic (all of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis) for years of inspiration and thought experimentation. A.G. acknowledges funding support from the ClimateWorks Foundation. C.W. was supported by European Research Council Starting Grant #678799.
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McCollum, D.L., Gambhir, A., Rogelj, J. et al. Energy modellers should explore extremes more systematically in scenarios. Nat Energy 5, 104–107 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-020-0555-3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-020-0555-3
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