Current global climate models struggle to represent precipitation and related extreme events, with serious implications for the physical evidence base to support climate actions. A leap to kilometre-scale models could overcome this shortcoming but requires collaboration on an unprecedented scale.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
References
Fiedler, S. et al. Mon. Weather Rev. 148, 3653–3680 (2020).
Wehner, M., Gleckler, P. & Lee, J. Weather Clim. Extrem. 30, 100283 (2020).
Palmer, T. N. & Stevens, B. J. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 116, 24390–24395 (2019).
Lee, J.-Y. et al. in IPCC Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis (eds Masson-Delmotte, V. et al.) Ch. 4 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2021).
Wang, C. Clim. Dyn. 53, 5119–5136 (2019).
Feng, Z. et al. J. Geophys. Res. 126, e2020JD034202 (2021).
Houze, R. A. Meteorol. Monogr. 59, 17.1–17.54 (2018).
Kendon, E. J. et al. Nat. Clim. Change 4, 570–576 (2014).
Kendon, E. J. et al. Nat. Commun. 10, 1794 (2019).
Bates, P. D. et al. Water Resour. Res. 57, e2020WR028673 (2021).
Satoh, M. et al. Curr. Clim. Change Rep. 5, 172–184 (2019).
Schulthess, T. C. et al. Comput. Sci. Eng. 21, 30–41 (2019).
Stevens, B. et al. Prog. Earth Planet. Sci. 6, 61 (2019).
Bauer, P. et al. Nat. Comput. Sci. 1, 104–113 (2021).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
J.S. led the writing of the manuscript, drawing on expertise from all the authors; she also contributed expert knowledge of tropical convection and its role in the global climate system. P. Bates provided expertise in hydrological modelling; P. Bauer provided expertise in exascale computing and digital technologies; S.B. provided evidence of the impact of k-scale regional climate projections; T.P. provided expertise on multi-scale atmospheric dynamics and climate predictability; G.S. provided expertise on clouds and Earth observation; B.S. contributed pioneering global k-scale simulations; T.S. provided expertise in IPCC climate evidence base; and G.T. provided supporting evidence for k-scale models based on climate applications. All authors reviewed, revised and approved the final version.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Competing interests
The authors declare no competing interests.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Slingo, J., Bates, P., Bauer, P. et al. Ambitious partnership needed for reliable climate prediction. Nat. Clim. Chang. 12, 499–503 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01384-8
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01384-8
- Springer Nature Limited
This article is cited by
-
Uncertainties in measuring precipitation hinders precise evaluation of loss of diversity in biomes and ecotones
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science (2024)
-
Reflecting on the Science of Climate Tipping Points to Inform and Assist Policy Making and Address the Risks they Pose to Society
Surveys in Geophysics (2024)
-
Tropical Deep Convection, Cloud Feedbacks and Climate Sensitivity
Surveys in Geophysics (2024)
-
Why we need lower-performance climate models
Climatic Change (2024)
-
Recent global nonhydrostatic modeling approach without using a cumulus parameterization to understand the mechanisms underlying cloud changes due to global warming
Progress in Earth and Planetary Science (2023)