Skip to main content

Advertisement

Log in

Extreme events

The art of attribution

  • News & Views
  • Published:

From Nature Climate Change

View current issue Submit your manuscript

A high-impact weather event that occurred at the end of a decade of weather extremes led to the emergence of extreme event attribution science. The challenge is now to move on to assessing the actual risks, rather than simply attributing meteorological variables to climate change.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Figure 1: Record-breaking extreme events, 2012–2015.

References

  1. Coumou, D. & Rahmstorf, S. Nature Clim. Change 2, 491–496 10.1038/nclimate1452(2012).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. WMO: 2015 likely to be warmest on record, 2011–2015 warmest five year period. World Meteorological Organization (25 November 2015); http://go.nature.com/ua8JqV

  3. Allen, M. Nature 421, 891–892 (2003).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  4. Stott, P. A., Stone, D. A. & Allen, M. R. Nature 432, 610–614 (2004).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  5. Dole, R. et al. Geophys. Res. Lett. 38, L06702 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Rahmstorf, S. & Coumou, D. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 108, 12905–17909 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Otto, F. E. L., Massey, N., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Jones, R. G. & Allen, M. R. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L04702 (2012).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Trenberth, K. E., Fasullo, J. T. & Shepherd, T. G. Nature Clim. Change 5, 725–730 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Grose, M. R., Black, M. T., Risby, J. S. & Karoly, D. J. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 96, 158–162 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Delworth, T. L. & Zeng, F. Nature Geosci. 7, 583–587 (2014).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  11. Herring, S. et al. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 96, S1–S172 (2015).

    Google Scholar 

  12. Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change (National Academies Press, 2016).

  13. Shepard, T. Curr. Clim. Change Rep. 2, 28–38 (2016).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. Stott, P. et al. WIREs Clim. Change 7, 23–41 (2016).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Sippel, S. & Otto, F. E. L. Climatic Change 125, 381–398 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Friederike E. L. Otto.

Supplementary information

Supplementary Information

Supplementary Information (PDF 225 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Otto, F. The art of attribution. Nature Clim Change 6, 342–343 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2971

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2971

  • Springer Nature Limited

This article is cited by

Navigation